News - Local/State

Sunday, Aug. 24, 2008

Southern voters think McCain's the better man to fix economy

COLUMBIA -- Even as Barack Obama luxuriates in the glow of publicity from his vice presidential selection, a significant trouble spot has appeared on his horizon.

A poll conducted by Winthrop University and ETV shows likely Southern voters strongly favor Obama's Republican opponent, John McCain, when it comes to their top concern, the weak U.S. economy.

Asked who would do a better job on the economy, Obama trails McCain by 14 percentage points among likely voters in 11 Southern states, including South Carolina, according to the poll. Working-class white voters in the South prefer McCain on the economy by an even wider margin 54 percent to 29.5 percent.

The results are striking, given Obama's focus on the economy and McCain's public statement that economic matters are not his strong suit. The results also loom as a potential threat to Obama's hope of picking off a Southern state or two.

Race is tightening

Why do Southerners favor McCain on the economy?

"John McCain is certainly well known and has a history of trying to end wasteful government," said Katon Dawson, chairman of the S.C. Republican Party. "Barack Obama is untested. Right now, you're looking at the mood shift."

While the Winthrop/ETV poll shows McCain crushing Obama in a region where Republicans typically fare well, other national polls show the race to be tightening.

Obama and his supporters all along have insisted that the polling leads he has enjoyed over McCain would narrow. And, they add, regional or national polls are not as important as individual state polls because presidential elections are, essentially, a series of statewide contests for electoral votes.

But the Winthrop/ETV poll underscores the challenge Obama faces in the South, where cultural issues, including gun rights, abortion rights and religious faith, give Republicans an advantage.

Black candidates for statewide office in the South tend to do poorly, as they must rely on white support to win. The poll shows that Obama's plan turn out loads of black voters and convince white voters they can trust him on national security and the economy has, so far, failed to gain traction.

"They don't trust Obama yet," said Scott Huffmon, a Winthrop associate professor of political science who helped direct the poll. "They don't know much about him. They think they know McCain."

A S.C. resident who participated in the poll and plans to vote for McCain illustrated that point.

"This is a hard one," said Dorothy Willis, a 67-year old retiree who is an administrative assistant for her church in Beaufort. "(The economy) may be one of his (McCain's) weaker points, but I feel that he has the experience. He knows more readily what would help families."

Carol Fowler, chairwoman of the S.C. Democratic Party, said trust and familiarity could be playing a role in how Southerners are approaching this election.

"Southerners tend to be very traditional," she said. "Senator McCain looks like a traditional president, an older white guy."

Obama's backers say they are not worried that their man will be blown out in the South.

"I don't find the polling method that compelling," said former S.C. Gov. Jim Hodges, an Obama supporter. "The election isn't a regional election. It's a state-by-state election. McCain's improvement is really Republicans coming home."

McCain was not the preferred choice of many Southern Republican voters, who tend to be more religious and conservative than GOP voters elsewhere.

But his victory in South Carolina's primary earlier this year when he defeated former Baptist preacher and Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee was a major triumph. It demonstrated that McCain's biography as a former Vietnam War prisoner of war and his reputation as a straight-talking crusader against government waste could resonate with voters.

The nation's economic troubles a weak housing market, a tight credit market, high gas prices, and soaring inflation and health-care costs were thought to be an area where Obama could make headway against McCain.

Southern voters are greatly concerned about the economy.

About 36 percent of those polled said it was their No. 1 issue. That's three times as many as those who said Iraq was the top issue and six times as many as those who said the same about gas prices.

Almost 74 percent of those polled said the economy is getting worse, and they left no doubt as to which candidate they want to fix things: McCain.

A quarter of those polled said they were somewhat or very concerned about losing their job in the next year, and 29 percent said they would need new job training if they were out of work.

Despite the economic anxiety, the South has fared about the same on employment as the nation, according to figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The 11 states included in the Winthrop/ETV poll had an average jobless rate of 5.75 percent in July, only slightly higher than the national rate of 5.7 percent.

Fowler said Obama should keep his focus trained on the economy.

"The economy far outweighs any other issue in this election," she said. "He has to really push that issue. It's the same way Bill Clinton won in '92."