Published: Sunday, Jan. 03, 2010 / Updated: Sunday, Jan. 03, 2010 12:10 PM

John Fox: Will he stay or will he go?

CHARLOTTE -- The Carolina Panthers should be in for a relatively stable offseason.

With the exception of, perhaps, their head coach leaving.

The future of coach John Fox is very much up in the air heading into today’s finale at Bank of America Stadium against New Orleans. And what happens in the following days figures to be full of back-channel intrigue, as the team shapes itself for the future in an uncertain environment.

Two team sources told The Herald last week that they think Fox is positioning himself for a move elsewhere. However, one source close to Fox said there was no way he’d simply walk away from the last year of his contract, and would be willing to return as a lame-duck coach for his scheduled $6.5 million.

While much is unknown at the moment, here’s what is clear:

— The Panthers have no intention to fire Fox, the most successful coach in franchise history by far.

— The Panthers also have no intention to give him a contract extension at the moment, not entering the last year of known football revenues.

— Along with Fox, every member of the coaching staff has a contract that runs through the end of the 2010 season.

— The personnel department is equally locked up, with every member contractually taken care of through the 2011 draft, whenever or if it might occur.

— The one exception among the football staff is general manager Marty Hurney, whose contract expires in June 2010. Hurney, however, has said repeatedly this is of no concern to him, and inside the building, he’s viewed to have more job security than anyone short of owner Jerry Richardson himself and perhaps new team president Danny Morrison.

The problem with trying to predict what’s happening in the coming weeks is that there is no road map. The old rules no longer apply, as the identity of the coach in 2010 and beyond won’t rest solely on that man’s coaching ability, but on economics.

The core issue is the lack of movement on the league’s negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement with the players union. Without a new CBA, the stage is set for an uncapped 2010 and a lockout the following year. Aside from a few smaller (sweetheart) television deals which pay whether games are played or not, that means no football revenue for owners in 2011.

Thus, many teams including the Panthers are hesitant to guarantee money for people who may not be working in 2011. So while the Panthers are one of the league’s higher-revenue teams, they’re not interested in bidding for “name” coaches, as they’re expected to find a young (i.e. cheap) replacement if Fox winds up elsewhere.

All that puts the first stage of the decision on Fox, and as he mentioned last week, his agent.

He essentially has two options: 1) Show up and work out his contract (for the last $6.5 million installment), or 2) ask for permission to seek a better offer elsewhere.

Because the Panthers hold his rights for another year, they’d then have the ability to seek draft pick compensation if another team wanted to sign Fox to a long-term deal. While the league blanched in the wake of the 2002 “trade” that sent Jon Gruden from Oakland to Tampa Bay for four draft picks (two firsts and two seconds) and $8 million, the practice isn’t banned. In 2006, Kansas City acquired coach Herm Edwards from the New York Jets for a fourth-round pick (which became running back Leon Washington). The league’s anti-tampering policy states simply that: “Except for Head Coaches and High-Level Club Employees (club presidents, general managers, and persons with equivalent responsibility and authority), clubs are not permitted to exchange draft choices or cash for the release of individuals who are under contract to another organization.”

So if Fox is so offended by Richardson’s unwillingness to extend him that he can’t bring himself to work here, the ingredients exist for a stare-down.

Fox himself has said little, other than last week’s terse direction toward his contract and his agent. Attempts to follow-up the issue were met with “I am speaking English, right?” Agent Bob LaMonte has not returned messages left in the last week.

Then the question would become how tightly the Panthers want to hold on.

Fox and Hurney have a long-standing relationship, dating back to the early 1990s when they both worked in San Diego. Once viewed as a matched pair, the future of the two no longer seems directly linked.

According to multiple sources with knowledge of Richardson’s thinking, Hurney’s going nowhere. The owner trusts the former newspaper reporter-turned-salary cap expert implicitly. So while Hurney has long downplayed his own contractual future, those inside the building insist it’s ultimately a non-factor.

Hurney has also taken steps to ensure that the core of the team remains intact, from players to his personnel men.

Scouts and directors on both the college and pro scouting side have contracts that take them to June 2011. While some of them had contracts that expired in January 2011 (or the end of the 2010 season), Hurney recently extended those deals to cover the time until the completion of the 2011 draft. Because of the labor uncertainty, there’s no clear idea of when or if that will be held.

The roster is also largely intact for next year.

Including players who are restricted free agents — who the Panthers can match any offers for or receive draft-pick compensation — the Panthers have 57 of their 65 players (the 53-man roster and the 12 on injured reserve) under contractual control next year.

The eight unrestricted free agents are: Defensive ends Julius Peppers and Tyler Brayton, wide receiver Muhsin Muhammad, right guard Keydrick Vincent, defensive tackle Hollis Thomas, cornerback Dante Wesley and quarterbacks Josh McCown and A.J. Feeley. Aside from Peppers, there’s not a player on that list who couldn’t be replaced with parts already here.

The other variable that would be tied to Fox’s future would be the coaching staff. If he left for another job, there are a number of assistants he’d want to take with him.

The most obvious “Fox guys” on staff are running backs coach and assistant head coach Jim Skipper (was on the New York Giants staff with Fox from 1997-2000), special teams coach Danny Crossman (played for Fox at the University of Pittsburgh) and safeties coach Mike Gillhamer (also worked with Fox in New York). All, however, have contracts, so the Panthers wouldn’t be forced to let them walk away.

But that’s a step away. The first thing they have to do is finish the season, and then decide who’s leading them into the next one.

That part of it is far from simple, and also very far from finished.