Published: Monday, Jul. 13, 2009 / Updated: Monday, Jul. 13, 2009 06:54 AM

USC football: Going up ... or down in 2009?

Gamecocks hope to break out of ‘average' funk

Take an overview of South Carolina football this decade, and the term that comes to mind is “average.”

Last season, the USC football team finished 7-6. Since 2000, the Gamecocks have averaged 7.3 wins and 5.3 losses per season.

Never more than nine wins (and that only happened once), and never fewer than five. Never more than seven losses (which only happened twice) and never fewer than four.

Some programs might take that. Gamecock fans, understandably, want more.

So in the final season of this decade, what can be expected? Here are five reasons the Gamecocks might finally break through and have a stupendous season, along with five reasons their fortunes could go the opposite direction:

THE GAMECOCKS MIGHT BE BETTER BECAUSE

1. The new coaches

An overhauled coaching staff — with six new assistants and another in a new assignment — will infuse energy and new ideas into the program.

Eric Wolford turns around the offensive line; G.A. Mangus succeeds in his role as quarterback Stephen Garcia's shadow; Jay Graham gets the running game going; and so on. And the special teams, with Shane Beamer taking over after previous coach Ray Rychleski's departure to the NFL, shows no dropoff.

2. Stephen Garcia

The redshirt sophomore finally lives up to the hype. He benefits from being the unquestioned starter, not having to compete or look over his shoulder, and from going through an entire spring practice.

Garcia's dual-threat abilities also give the offense a thriving new dimension: He learns when to abandon the pocket and when to stay in it, and he figures out when to just throw the ball away. And Spurrier calls just enough designed quarterback runs to keep the defense off-balance.

3. An opening in the SEC East

OK, it seems far-fetched that anyone will finish ahead of Florida, which returns Tim Tebow, Brandon Spikes and company from the team that won the national title. But look around the rest of the division, and no clear-cut No. 2 exists.

Georgia has to replace its quarterback, and who knows how soon, or even if, new coach Lane Kiffin will turn around Tennessee. Kentucky and Vanderbilt should be solid, but are eminently beatable.

No. 2 in the SEC East might not be so bad.

4. The defense

The two Es — linebacker Eric Norwood and defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson — return. So do enough other members of the supporting cast, including budding stars Cliff Matthews (end) and Chris Culliver (safety), solid safety Darian Stewart and a very deep line.

The main question is at cornerback, but new assistant Lorenzo Ward has a great track record, and there is a lot of young talent at the position.

And when it comes to stopping the pass, guys like Norwood, Matthews and Clifton Geathers will apply enough pressure to keep the opposing offense troubled.

5. Influx of new talent

The Gamecocks signed a top-15 recruiting class in February, and several of those players participated in spring practice and have a chance to contribute early.

Spurrier has said former South Pointe star Stephon Gilmore, who has grabbed a starting cornerback spot as a true freshman, has a chance to be the best player to ever play at USC. DeVonte Holloman, Gilmore's former Stallions teammate, is getting a chance, too.

Tailback Jarvis Giles showed huge potential in the spring, and receiver Alshon Jeffery was one of the nation's top prospects. Others — like junior college transfer Steven Singleton, an offensive linemen, and freshman defensive back Chris Payne — provide depth and promise.

THE GAMECOCKS MIGHT BE WORSE BECAUSE

1. New coaches can only do so much

What if the offensive line problems weren't all the fault of ousted assistant coach John Hunt? And even if schematics were a problem, Wolford has to replace two longtime starters in Jamon Meredith and Justin Sorensen.

And maybe most importantly, what if Mangus can't get through to Garcia?

While new secondary coach Lorenzo Ward has a good track record, so does the man he replaced, Ron Cooper.

Overall, the new coaches are young and hungry, but that also means they're less experienced, collectively, than the men they replaced.

2. Stephen Garcia

Experience still counts, and Garcia is a redshirt sophomore. He's raw, and 2009 could just end up being another developmental season before a true breakout season.

Or perhaps he's just not as good as the high school recruiting rankings made him out to be.

Remember, he was also the unquestioned starter, getting all the first-team snaps for several weeks going into the Outback Bowl, and how did that turn out?

3. The schedule

There was a reason college football guru Phil Steele ranked USC's schedule the toughest in the country. Steele, who has a history of making accurate predictions based on stats, pointed out that USC's opponents had a combined winning percentage of .628 last season.

USC must play road games against N.C. State, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee and Arkansas. Florida, Mississippi and Clemson will visit Williams-Brice.

The Gamecocks could be underdogs in the majority of their games.

4. The defense

Personnel losses piled up last season: Middle linebacker Jasper Brinkley, underrated cornerback Stoney Woodson and end Jordin Lindsey are gone, and safety Emanuel Cook and cornerback Captain Munnerlyn chose to go pro early.

That leaves plenty of questions, including: Who will step up at the spur position? Will the young corners be able to handle high-flying SEC offenses?

5. Lack of experience

Gilmore might be a star in the making, but he's still just a freshman, and he will be targeted early on by opposing quarterbacks. Giles and Jeffery have a lot of competition at their skill positions.

Replacing the NFL's Mr. Irrelevant, kicker Ryan Succop, will also be quite relevant to the Gamecocks. Spencer Lanning has experience punting but not attempting field goals.