Odds of tropical depression formation strengthen to 70% by weekend as wave moves over Bahamas, toward Florida
There’s a new storm brewing over the Bahamas and forecasters say it will likely turn into a tropical storm in the coming days.
The system — known currently as “potential tropical cyclone nine” — could bring tropical storm force winds and rain to parts of Florida and the east coast over the weekend, the National Hurricane Center said Thursday.
But forecasters warned uncertainty was still high.
“Note that forecast uncertainty for these disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours,” the center said in an update.
But it does have a 70 percent chance of developing into a named storm in the next two days, and that increases to 80 percent over five days, according to the NHC.
“This disturbance will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday, especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by Hurricane Dorian,” the Hurricane Center said.
Tropical storm warnings are now in effect for several islands in the northwestern Bahamas, according to the center.
The question for everyone along the East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico is where this storm will go next. If it does continue to develop, the new storm will be named Humberto.
“The models are all over the map with a 5-7 day track,” said Mark Malsick with the South Carolina Climate Office. Half of the models put the storm going into the Gulf of Mexico, he said, “and the other half of model solutions taking 95L on a Dorian-like southeast coastal track.”
Unfortunately, Malsick added, “the more reliable models ... are in the southeast coastal track camp.”
But don’t start worrying yet. “It is too early to tell today exactly just how far offshore 95L passes next week if this southeast coastal fly-by solution pans out in the next 5 days.
People in the North Carolina and South Carolina are finally dried out from Hurricane Dorian and the hard-hit areas along the Outer Banks are getting back in action. But officials are keeping an eye on the possible Tropical Storm Humberto.
“We are closely monitoring the area of disrupted weather currently hovering over the SE portion over the Bahamas. Conditions are becoming favorable for a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Humberto to form within the next day or so as the system continues to move NW,” the Colleton County Sheriff’s Office, in the South Carolina Lowcountry, said on Facebook.