Clinton win in SC? Political stunner could be in the works

What are the odds of Hillary Clinton winning South Carolina in November? Getting better, according to one numbers-cruncher.

Nate Silver of the FiveThirtyEight website currently lists Donald Trump as a heavy favorite in South Carolina, saying the Republican has a 58.8 percent chance of winning the state. But that number has dropped precipitously in the past week.

On July 30, Trump had a 84.9 percent likelihood of winning South Carolina in FiveThirtyEight’s projections. Since then, however, the odds have dropped steadily, a loss of more than 25 points over a nine-day period.

At the same time, FiveThirtyEight projects a tightening race in terms of vote totals, saying Trump has the support of 46.5 percent of S.C. voters to Clinton’s 44.8 percent, a difference of less than two percentage points.

On July 30, Trump led in FiveThirtyEight’s analysis by 50.1 percent to 41.6 percent.

The site projects Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson’s S.C. support at 7.1 percent.

If the election were held today, FiveThirtyEight predicts the most surprising result of all: a 50.4 percent chance that Clinton could win South Carolina and its nine electoral votes.

(Of course, the election is not today; it’s Nov. 8.)

The projections are based on a weighted, adjusted polling average for each state, using demographic data to help model the outcome in states like South Carolina, where there has been little general election polling.

South Carolina has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since neighboring-state governor Jimmy Carter of Georgia carried the Palmetto State in 1976.

This story was originally published August 8, 2016 at 1:57 PM with the headline "Clinton win in SC? Political stunner could be in the works."