York County coronavirus unemployment versus the Great Recession? It isn’t close.
Another week of declining unemployment claims in South Carolina comes with a pretty big caveat. It had a long way down to go.
The South Carolina Department of Employment and Workforce announced its latest week of unemployment claim filings on Thursday morning. The week ending May 2 saw almost 47,000 claims statewide. It’s the third straight week of declining claims among people who live and work in South Carolina.
“Our agency is encouraged to report the third straight weekly decline in the number of unemployment insurance initial claims,” workforce department Executive Director Dan Ellzey said in a statement. “We understand, however, that this good news is tempered by the record high number of claims overall.”
For many, the nearest recognizable job loss comparison is the Great Recession that began more than a decade ago. Yet for claim filing, there isn’t much comparison.
“During the heart of the 2008-2009 Great Recession, laid-off employees were filing an average of 10,000 new claims per week,” Ellzey said. “While the number of new claims we reported today is a great improvement over the numbers three weeks ago, it is still well over four times higher than the number of initial weekly claims being filed during the Great Recession.”
In 2008 York County had an annual unemployment rate of 7%. The rate jumped to 13.5% in 2009 and wouldn’t dip below 10% again until 2012. For comparison, York County had an unemployment rate from August 2019 to pre-coronavirus March 2020 between 2% and 2.9%.
Lancaster County had unemployment at 11% or higher each year from 2008 to 2012, with a high of 17.4% in 2009. Chester County saw 11% or higher unemployment from 2008 to 2013. It reached above 19% in both 2009 and 2010.
The tri-county area jumped from 8.4% unemployment in 2008 to 14.9% in 2009. It wouldn’t drop below 10% until 2013. By 2018 the unemployment rate was 3.5%.
From company announcements to a recent South Carolina Chamber of Commerce survey, there are indicators many employers plan to bring back staff when social distancing measures related to the COVID-19 coronavirus lift. It’s at least possible the much steeper spike in unemployment from coronavirus could — if those companies bring workers back at an executive order allowing them to do so — precede a steeper reemployment.
Already restaurants are allowed to operate outdoor seating again, and reopening measures are in discussion, including a phased reopening in Lancaster County set to start Monday.
“I am excited to see employers begin to reopen and bring South Carolinians back to work,” Ellzey said. “Restarting the economy and engaging the workforce is important in helping people move from the temporary federal funding to employment with long-term stability.”
That state Chamber of Commerce survey released earlier this week included responses from almost 4,500 businesses of varied size and industry. Most were small businesses. More than half of responding businesses indicated they’d need a full lifting of social distancing measures to return to work at pre-coronavirus staffing and production levels.
The week ending May 2 brought 1,665 new unemployment claims in York County. Lancaster County saw 560 claims, and Chester County another 284 claims. The 2,509 claims now bring the total tri-county number since mid-March to 24,120 claims.
The listed number of unemployed in the tri-county area for all of 2009 — the hardest hit Great Recession year, with 14.9% unemployment — was 23,517 people.
Since mid-March, York County now has 16,376 unemployment claims. Lancaster County has 5,128 claims. Chester County has 2,616 claims.
Statewide, the employment department paid more than $831 million in state and federal benefits from March 15 to May 5.
