York County moves closer to a population milestone few in the Carolinas can match
Any day now, if it hasn’t already, York County could hit a population milestone seldom seen across the Carolinas.
York and Lancaster counties aren’t at peak growth rates, but new U.S. Census Bureau population estimates released Thursday still show plenty of people coming here. Based on those estimates and more than a decade of prior data, York County is likely to top 300,000 residents this year.
Only six counties in South Carolina, and just a dozen across both Carolinas, have that many residents.
York, Lancaster and Chester county growth
The census data estimates population as of July 1, 2023. Official population counts only come with each decennial census.
As of last summer, York County had 298,320 residents. Lancaster County had 108,215 and Chester County had 32,226 residents.
York County had a one-year growth rate of 1.4%, its lowest figure since 2020. Apart from the 1.1% rate in 2020, York County has grown by 1.4% to 3.2% each year since at least 2011.
Yet even last year’s growth rate meant 4,119 more people live in York County. Half that many people added this year would push the county over the 300,000 mark.
York and Lancaster both sat at or near the top of the state for growth rates the past decade. Both are down slightly.
Lancaster County ranks No. 4 in South Carolina with a 3.3% one-year growth rate. York County is tied for No. 15 at 1.4%. Chester County ranked tied for No. 25 at 0.7%. South Carolina has 46 counties.
Since 2020, Lancaster County grew by 12.7%. That number ranks third in South Carolina behind Jasper (16.4%) and Horry (13.2%). York County (5.8%) is No. 10 in South Carolina.
Chester County declined by 0.2% in that same span.
The 16,231 more residents in York County now than in 2020 ranks No. 5 in net growth in South Carolina, for that time. Lancaster County only has about a third the number of residents York County does, but added 12,204 people since 2020. That’s No. 8 in the state.
Growth across the Carolinas
The Carolinas region has 146 counties. Only two of them, both in North Carolina, have more than 1 million residents. Wake County is the largest, followed by Mecklenburg County.
Mecklenburg, home to Charlotte, has about four times the population of York County at an estimated 1,163,701 people. Yet among the seven neighboring counties to Mecklenburg, York is the largest. It has about 42,000 more people than Union County, North Carolina.
Lancaster County is sixth largest in the metro, behind York and North Carolina counties Union, Cabarrus, Gaston and Iredell.
York ranks No. 13 in population across the Carolinas. Lancaster County is No. 41 and Chester County is No. 98.
The one-year growth rate of 3.3% in Lancaster County is seventh highest across both states. It’s tops in the Charlotte metro, including Mecklenburg. York is tied for No. 37 in the Carolinas, and Chester is tied for No. 82.
The 12.7% growth in Lancaster since 2020 is No. 5 in the Carolinas, again best in the Charlotte metro. York County is No. 26 and Chester County is No. 115.
That Lancaster County rate is fifth highest in both Carolinas. York County is tied for No. 26 in both states.
The total population increase in York County ranks No. 11 in the Carolinas, while Lancaster County is No. 16.
How are York and Lancaster counties growing?
The census data doesn’t break down reasons why more people are here, but it offers some insight into how they got here.
In a year, York County had 3,376 births and 2,521 deaths for a net increase of 855 residents. Net migration added 3,277 people — almost four times the natural increase (births and deaths).
Since 2020 York County added 1,741 residents through natural increase and 14,644 through net migration.
Lancaster County only grew by 58 births compared to deaths in a year but 3,433 via net migration. Since 2020, Lancaster lost 87 residents in natural change but grew by 12,342 through migration.
Chester County had 182 more deaths than births, but grew slightly due to 412 more movers into the area in a year. Since 2020, Chester County deaths outpaced births by 665 people. Migration only added 584 people.
