Do endorsements matter in S.C. primary?

Who are you voting for?

If you haven’t decided yet which presidential candidate has your support in South Carolina’s primary elections, there are other political pros willing to share their opinion with you.

As primary day drew near, more and more high-profile names have raced to weigh in. Gov. Nikki Haley gave her approval to U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio on Wednesday. On Friday, U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn of Columbia gave Hillary Clinton the state’s most coveted Democratic endorsement.

In fact, frontrunner Clinton has wrapped up many of the state’s Democrats, from former governors Jim Hodges and Dick Riley to local elected officials such as Rep. John King of Rock Hill and Sen. Creighton Coleman of Winnsboro. But in recent weeks, more legislators and former state Democratic Party chairman Dick Harpootlian have swung their support to Clinton’s primary opponent, Bernie Sanders.

On the Republican side, Jeb Bush seems to lead the “endorsement primary,” with backing from U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, state Rep. Ralph Norman of Rock Hill and York County Sheriff Bruce Bryant. But that hasn’t seemed to help the former Florida governor’s poll numbers. He trails Donald Trump, who despite picking up an endorsement from Lt. Gov. Henry McMaster, has mostly lacked traditional endorsements.

Even as the media keeps track of each candidate’s backers and ranks their relative importance, it raises the question: just how much do endorsements matter once voters actually start voting? Political experts and even party leaders suspect they really don’t.

“It doesn’t hurt, but the question is, does it help?” said Rick Whisonant, political science professor at York Technical College. “If a race is very close, it can, but a lot of factors come into play.”

In a modern media landscape, York County GOP chairman Wes Climer says who has whose endorsement “matters less and less, but they’re not meaningless.”

“For some voters, having a local endorsement is like the Good Housekeeping seal of approval,” said Climer, who as a party officer can’t make an endorsement in a primary race. “A candidate’s messaging and organization on the ground is what determines if they win. But where someone is undecided, and they see someone who they may like is endorsing someone, you can see votes flip.”

But endorsements can fail to deliver on their promises. In the case of Bush, endorsements haven’t gotten the candidate higher than fifth place in national polls, and in South Carolina, Bush averages around 10 percent in polling.

“Jeb, according to endorsements, had the lead in July of last year,” Whisonant said. “But in the establishment of the party, you’ve got a situation where there are four or five candidates (running) ... they kind of cancel each other out.”

To political science professor Michael Bitzer of Catawba College in Salisbury, N.C., divisions among party leaders – both those who have endorsed and those who haven’t – shows the uncertainty of the race in such a crowded field.

“There’s a school of thought that when you get the larger number of endorsements from state party officials, you’ve secured the nomination,” Bitzer said. “But you see so many running this time, leaders are hedging their bets.”

“It’s emblematic of the problem of too many choices,” he said.

Instead, an outsider candidate such as Trump has drawn more attention for endorsements from the likes of former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and Liberty University’s Jerry Falwell Jr. – endorsements that Bitzer sees as “signals” to specific voting blocs.

“With Palin, there’s a certain celebrity factor, but she has a small but devoted following, while Jerry Falwell helps with evangelical voters,” he said. “Voters on the Republican side are still making up their minds, and these endorsements are reaffirmations.”

A similar dynamic may be playing out on the Democratic side, where Sanders – a candidate seen as struggling to reach black voters – recently secured the endorsement of state Rep. Justin Bamberg, a former Clinton backer best known as the attorney representing the family of police shooting victim Walter Scott.

“In general, (endorsements) don’t make a difference unless they make the news. ... That was in the New York Times,” said Amy Hayes, chair of the York County Democrats. “A highly visible endorsement in the African-American community can be influential.”

The politician making the endorsement can also gain something from the interaction, especially if they back the right horse.

“They’re ingratiating themselves with the next occupant of the Oval Office,” Climer said. “That can be beneficial both for you and your constituents.”

The best example might be former S.C. House Speaker David Wilkins, who endorsed George W. Bush in 2000 and ended up being named the U.S. ambassador to Canada.

“That was phenomenal for South Carolina,” Climer said. “That shows it can make a difference.”

Some candidates have fallen by the wayside even after earning a local endorsement. Among the area’s legislative delegation, state Reps. Greg Delleney of Chester and Dennis Moss of Cherokee County both endorsed Mike Huckabee, who dropped out after a ninth-place finish in Iowa, as did Martin O’Malley on the Democratic side, who was backed by Sen. Vincent Sheheen of Camden.

U.S. Rep. Mick Mulvaney of Indian Land doubted the power of his endorsement after his friend, U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, gave up his quest for the nomination after the Iowa caucuses.

“I endorsed one guy and it didn’t help,” Mulvaney said. “I don’t know why Ted Cruz or Donald Trump would want my endorsement.”

In the meantime, voters will have a lot of other recommendations to go through, from congressmen, senators, national and local leaders. But if early results in this campaign season are any indication, the voters are going to make up their minds even without a nod from someone important.

“When you really start gaining traction,” Whisonant said. “That matters a lot more than endorsements.”

This story was originally published February 19, 2016 at 6:15 PM with the headline "Do endorsements matter in S.C. primary?."