The winners and losers in the GOP primary in South Carolina
Winners
1. Team Trump
The S.C. primary winner's message was a hit in South Carolina. Donald Trump led all but two Palmetto State polls after entering the race in June. His events, dotted across the state's major cities, were packed with thousands of supporters and gawkers. His S.C. team — led by strategists Ed McMullen and Jim Merrill, a Charleston-area state representative — helped bring Trump some of his first establishment supporters, including Lt. Gov. Henry McMaster and former State Ports Authority chairman Bill Stern, who helped lead U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham's presidential campaign before the Seneca Republican dropped out of the race.
2. Nikki Haley/Marco Rubio’s S.C. supporters
Haley’s response to Democratic President Barack Obama's State of the Union address — admonishing her fellow Republicans — created national buzz about a vice presidential nod. Seen again as a new face of the GOP, Haley’s endorsement became that much more valuable. The Republican governor waited until three days before the primary to announce her choice, a fellow 44-year-old child of immigrants, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida. Haley’s choice validated the groundwork of Team Marco in the state. That work started with Terry Sullivan and Warren Tompkins, the veteran S.C. political operatives running Rubio's campaign and political-action committee, and was bolstered by key S.C. endorsements from U.S. Sen. Tim Scott of North Charleston and U.S. Rep. Trey Gowdy of Spartanburg.
3. Alan Wilson
South Carolina's attorney general hosted one-on-one forums with almost all the Republican presidential candidates across the state. He also co-hosted a "faith and family" event in Greenville with four GOP hopefuls just ahead of the primary. The gatherings gave Wilson the chance to share his message of limited government, states’ rights, socially conservative values and strict constitutional interpretation before thousands of South Carolinians. That exposure could prove invaluable if Wilson launches, as expected, a 2018 run for the GOP nomination for governor.
Losers
1. Establishment S.C. GOP
Six out of 10 Palmetto State Republican voters preferred a non-mainstream candidate ahead of the primary. Outsider candidates now have won or nearly won the past three S.C. GOP presidential primaries: former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee came within 4 percentage points of defeating U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona in 2008; former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia beat former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in 2012; and Trump won Saturday. One major S.C. GOP donor suggested Trump's success could lure more business leaders to enter politics, pushing the popular-with-the-GOP idea that making government more like business will end gridlock. Another establishment loser was U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Seneca Republican and party establishment stalwart whose own presidential bid failed to catch on. After butting heads with Trump, he followed many of his supporters and endorsed Jeb Bush, the top choice of the state’s mainstream Republicans. But Bush flamed out and then dropped out. As the S.C. GOP establishment struggles, Graham could face a serious challenge if he seeks re-election in 2020.
2. The Bush legacy
The blame will be pinned on a dozen different factors — his quiet campaign style, his reluctance to tout his last name — but Jeb Bush failed to become the third member of his family to win the S.C. GOP primary because he could never overcome the year of the populist candidates. Bush was the ultimate GOP establishment candidate. Bush and his allied PAC spent the most on television and radio ads in the state — 10 times more than Trump, according to NBC News tallies. Even bringing back reminders of past S.C. glories — former President George W. Bush and former first lady Barbara Bush — could not rescue Jeb's lagging campaign. Should South Carolinians be surprised? Probably not. Bush’s failure mimicked the failure of the S.C. GOP’s establishment wing in 2010.
3. Ted Cruz’s attempt to target S.C. evangelicals
South Carolina’s religious voting base no longer goes with one candidate. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, who aimed his campaign at religious voters, should have beat Trump among S.C. evangelicals. Instead, Cruz fought Rubio for second place. After winning Iowa and its evangelicals, South Carolina was supposed to be the state where Cruz, the staunch religious and constitutional candidate, would resume his winning way in states with large blocs of evangelical voters. But many evangelicals are convinced Trump, a thrice-married man not afraid to throw insults, will fix the country. Rubio also gained ground in the final week before the S.C. primary by courting Cruz's evangelical voter base. Rubio could do the same in upcoming primaries, touting his ability to pose a stronger challenge to Trump than Cruz and being more electable in November, splitting the religious vote.
This story was originally published February 20, 2016 at 10:42 PM with the headline "The winners and losers in the GOP primary in South Carolina."