Forecasters place Rock Hill area at ‘moderate’ risk for severe weather on Thursday.

The first severe weather threat of the year is taking shape for Thursday across the Carolinas. Forecasters say severe thunderstorms, hail, heavy rain and even tornadoes are possible.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., has placed the Rock Hill area in the “moderate” risk zone. That is the fourth-highest of the five risk levels for severe weather.

Forecasters say the threat is most likely from late morning into the afternoon hours.

The storms will develop ahead of and along an advancing cold front, National Weather Service meteorologists say.

“Timing will be almost everything,” says Dr. William Martin, science officer for the Weather Service’s office in Greer. “Earlier timing will likely result in a diminished threat. Later timing (late afternoon and evening) would likely yield a significant severe thunderstorm outbreak for our area.”

As of Wednesday evening, indications were that the frontal system would push through the Interstate 77 corridor around mid-afternoon.

This is the same system responsible for an outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes Wednesday across Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee.

The Rock Hill area and most of the Carolinas were locked in a wedge of cold air Tuesday and much of Wednesday. But forecasters said a warm front was expected to push northward later Tuesday, bringing warmer and much more unstable air into the region.

Temperatures are forecast to remain in the mid and upper 50s overnight, then climb to near 70 degrees Thursday.

Meteorologists say a few severe storms could form along the warm front as it pushes northward across the Carolinas, but more concentrated storm activity is expected after that, as the cold front sweeps into the region.

“All modes of severe weather will be possible,” Martin says.

Thunderstorms are expected to push east of the area by late afternoon, with a major severe weather outbreak possible in the eastern Carolinas on Thursday evening.

Cooler weather is predicted to return Friday through Sunday, with highs in the upper 50s Friday and Sunday and barely topping 50 degrees Saturday. But at least partial sunshine is forecast each day of the weekend.

A warm-up is indicated for early next week, with daytime highs approaching 70 degrees by Tuesday.

This story was originally published March 17, 2021 at 5:11 PM.