Where’s the population boom in the York County area today? One area may surprise you.
Some numbers aren’t surprising. Fort Mill keeps growing. Others, like Clover, may be.
On Thursday the U.S. Census Bureau released its final population estimates for the nation, states and counties ahead of the official 2020 census counts. Data breaks down by age, gender, race and other factors. There also are population estimates for cities and towns.
The bureau estimates population and demographic numbers at least annually. Official numbers come once a decade with the census, which uses them for a host of decisions from political voting districts to federal aid for roads, schools and public programs.
The last estimates will be compared to coming census data to determine how accurate forecasting models are. They also show the most updated picture of community growth across York, Lancaster and Chester counties.
Here are 10 key takeaways from the new data release:
▪ Fort Mill continues to build its population base. The 24,929 estimated residents from the latest projection is an increase of 11.6% in a year. No other municipality comes close. It’s almost three times the growth rate of the next highest -- Clover at 4%.
▪ Lancaster County hit six digits. The estimated 100,926 residents is up 2,646 in a year. It’s an almost 2.7% annual increase. Almost all that increase — 2,541 new residents — comes in unincorporated areas.
▪ York County grew by more than 7,600 residents in a year, a 2.7% annual increase. The latest estimate is 289,105 residents. That growth, just like in Lancaster County, is more than double the state rate of 1.2%.
▪ There are a couple of trend breakers in the area. Clover has had moderate growth in recent years. The 4% annual increase from the latest estimate there, to 6,800 residents, is second only to Fort Mill and well above York (2.6%) and Rock Hill (1.5%). On the other end, Tega Cay for several years ranked alongside Fort Mill, Indian Land and Lake Wylie near the top of growth rate lists. As less land there becomes available for new housing, Tega Cay saw just a 2.9% growth rate.
Still, growth comes at different times. Years of higher rates in Tega Cay now have that city with an estimated 11,696 residents. Almost twice what the faster-growing Clover area has.
▪ Indian Land continues to surge. The data doesn’t break down to the panhandle specifically, but does show unincorporated Lancaster County which by population is predominately Indian Land. That unincorporated area has grown 3% in a year. Unincorporated areas account for 86% of the Lancaster County population.
▪ Unincorporated York County keeps adding people too. Like in Lancaster County where Indian Land fuels growth, York County has communities like Lake Wylie and Baxter that add to population counts outside the municipalities. More than 3,000 new unincorporated area residents arrived in a year. It’s an uptick there of 1.9%. The unincorporated area population of 159,149 people makes up 55% of York County as a whole.
▪ Rock Hill grew by more than 1,100 residents in a year, to 76,318 total. The 1.5% annual growth rate isn’t near the top among area municipalities. But, Rock Hill still dwarfs its neighbors in total residents. Fort Mill, the next largest tri-county municipality, could fit its population into that of Rock Hill more than three times.
▪ Many of the smaller municipalities across the tri-county area combined don’t have the population of even the mid-sized cities and towns. Yet they have comparable and at times even higher growth rates. Van Wyck (3.5%), Heath Springs (3.1%) and Kershaw (3%) all saw steady annual growth. Those communities still combined for fewer than 4,600 residents.
▪ Chester County had a .1% increase of just 46 residents, to 32,232 total. Chester, Great Falls, Richburg all had lower estimates, while Fort Lawn and Lowrys were higher. None of the municipalities changed, in either direction, by more than four residents. Growth came in unincorporated Chester County, where the total rose by 50 residents.
▪ York, Lancaster and Chester counties account for 8.1% of the estimated South Carolina population. The tri-county area now has 422,263 residents. About a Rock Hill away, population-wise, from the half-million mark. Estimates have the tri-county area up more than 86,000 residents since the 2010 census, an almost 26% increase.
This story was originally published June 17, 2021 at 2:24 PM.
