SC governor up for reelection in 2022. Where does the race stand about 11 months out?
A year ago, thought was that a sitting Republican state senator and a wealthy Upstate businessman were going to in 2022 take on Gov. Henry McMaster, a Columbia veteran of GOP politics who successfully held off challengers in his first 2018 election bid.
Today — less than seven months until the 2022 primary election, and fewer than 11 months until the general — McMaster, 74, has no high-profile challenger, and has the backing of the Republican Governor’s Association and the former Republican president in a reliably red state.
Meanwhile, Democrats face a tough battle in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide since 2006.
Only two well-known Democrats have jumped into the race: former U.S. Rep. Joe Cunningham and state Sen. Mia McLeod from Richland County. And, at least two more plan to seek to challenge them in the June primary.
The South Carolina governor’s race might be nowhere near as exciting as neighboring Georgia’s — at least not yet — but candidates argue it’s still early.
Longtime political watchers, however, aren’t so sure.
“Given where Democratic standing is across the board, at this juncture, the aspects that could potentially make (South Carolina) competitive, which were always a long shot, are even longer and perhaps out of reach now,” said Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor for the Cook Political Report, a rating publication that shows the competitiveness of statewide and congressional elections.
McMaster enters 2022 with no notable challenger
By spring this year, President Joe Biden’s approval ratings in the country were strong, at 54% when Cunningham jumped into the race after Democratic candidate Gary Votour.
And Republican governors, including McMaster, were facing opposition even within their own party over their use of emergency powers to combat COVID-19’s spread as cases appeared as if they were finally starting to plateau.
It appeared as if Democrats had the opening they needed.
“The environment was good for Democrats in the spring and McMaster was taking heat for a lot of COVID things he did and there was the potential for a primary challenger,” Taylor added. “All those things could have made it a race, again a very tough one.”
But a midterm election year when Democrats hold the White House and both chambers in Congress signals a strong year for Republicans based on historical trends.
Biden’s approval ratings have dropped in the latter part of the year as he’s pushed for vaccine and testing mandates that some find controversial as the pandemic continues. Democrats also have struggled to move a chunk of Biden’s agenda through Congress.
That’s left Democrats across the country likely focusing on protecting incumbents rather than trying to flip seats, Taylor said.
Those factors recently led Cook Political Report to adjust its rating of the governor’s race from “likely Republican” — or having the potential to become competitive — to “solid Republican.”
The chances of it becoming competitive are now deemed a long shot, Taylor said.
“I’m glad to hear that, but we’re working hard,” McMaster told reporters earlier this month.
In 2018, McMaster faced a primary challenge from former lawmakers and officials and was forced into a runoff by successful businessman and veteran John Warren, who put millions of dollars of his own money into the race. Thought to run again in 2022, in a recent interview with the Associated Press Warren announced a new Bitcoin venture.
He declined to comment when asked about future political plans.
State Sen. Shane Massey, R-Edgefield, who’s been openly critical of the governor this year, is not running either.
So far, Mindy Steele of Berkeley County has filed to raise money to run in the Republican primary.
If no high-profile GOP challengers jump in by the March 30 filing deadline, McMaster won’t be bloodied up during a primary, allowing him to go in strong into the November general election.
Who is winning the SC money race?
In a small state like South Carolina, money can go far to help a candidate vying reelection or a newcomer.
In McMaster’s case, he has so far raised $3.5 million through the end of September which includes $1 million between July 1 and Sept. 30. A fundraiser featuring Donald Trump Jr. at the end of November brought it about a quarter-million dollars, according to news outlet Punchbowl News.
Cunningham, who served one term in Congress, has raised about $1 million through Sept. 30.
McLeod, who jumped into the race in June and is the first Black woman to seek the South Carolina governor’s office, has raised about $275,000 for her campaign through the end of September.
Ultimately, the amount of money in the governor’s race might not matter.
In last year’s Senate race between Republican U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham and now Democratic National Committee Chairman Jaime Harrison, the two campaigns raised more than $200 million mostly funded by donors from outside the state.
Graham, the incumbent, won by 10 percentage points.
“Governor’s races don’t become as nationalized as Senate races do, and Harrison was able to capitalize on that and get a lot of momentum and money,” Taylor said. “One party doesn’t get something because they have the most governors, versus the Senate, (which) is a body where it matters who controls it.”
Democrats duke it out
Candidates on the Democratic side face a tough hill to climb if they want to flip the state blue.
Though Cunningham and McLeod are the most notable candidates in the Democratic race, activist Votour and Florence County resident William Williams also are raising money for a run.
Cunningham said he isn’t giving too much credence to rating changes, instead focusing on the energy he sees at the campaign events he attends.
In 2017, ratings publications had South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District as a safe Republican seat. Sending shock waves down the political spine of the state, Cunningham flipped the coastal district once held by Republican Rep. Mark Sanford, a former governor.
Two years later, election ratings agencies listed the district as “lean Democratic.” Cunningham lost to Rep. Nancy Mace, R-Daniel Island.
“Rating an election this far out is like preseason college football rankings. They just don’t matter and they’re often wrong,” Cunnginham recently told The State. “People are still very energized, we’re still on the path way to victory.”
In the months since launching his campaign, Cunningham has run some television advertising as he zigzags across the state, aiming to reach voters in every one of the state’s 46 counties. He’s recently become engaged in the state’s redistricting process, testifying in front of legislators and actively tweeting criticism of proposed congressional maps.
McLeod, meanwhile, declined to comment on ratings that show the state more solidly leaning Republican.
She also dismissed concerns about her fundraising.
“I don’t see it as a struggle,” McLeod said. “Of course, it is a challenge because I am having to juggle a lot of different hats. I am confident we’ll see that number increase, because we’ve got a long road ahead. This is a marathon, not a sprint.”
With the limited cash, McLeod has used social media to get her message out, mostly consisting of Twitter jabs aimed at McMaster. She has stayed off of television, and made appearances at Democratic gatherings and visiting businesses around the state, so far reaching about half of South Carolina’s counties.
“It’s still very early. I just don’t think people are as engaged especially as we approach the holidays,” McLeod said in an interview last month. “You’ll be seeing more of our outreach efforts as we continue.”
.jpg "Cunningham, McMaster, McLeod (1).jpg")
This story was originally published December 28, 2021 at 5:00 AM with the headline "SC governor up for reelection in 2022. Where does the race stand about 11 months out?."
