Graham, Harrison need to win a ‘narrow group’ of SC voters in next debate
Heading into their second debate effectively tied in recent polls, Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham and Democrat Jaime Harrison are hoping to win over an increasingly narrow portion of the electorate in hopes of expanding their bases of support: the undecided voters.
On Friday, the two top candidates for the Senate job are scheduled to meet in Spartanburg for their second debate, hosted WSPA and the South Carolina Chamber of Commerce.
However on Thursday, Harrison said he could “not responsibly debate in person” if Graham, who attended a hearing where a person who tested positive for COVID-19 was present, doesn’t take a coronavirus test.
The debate comes six days after the first meeting between the two candidates locked in a tight race, recently deemed a toss-up by the Cook Political Report, which forecasts the competitiveness of races. A Quinnipiac University poll has the race tied at 48% each. CBS News/YouGov has Graham with a slight lead of 45% to 44%.
The race has captured the attention of political observers across the country as Harrison has mounted the greatest challenge Graham has experienced in his political lifetime, competing in fundraising and lately in the polls, and outspending on the airwaves.
That interest was reflected in the viewership during the first Graham-Harrison face-off at Allen University on Saturday. The hour-long clip of the debate on C-SPAN’s website has been viewed more than 57,000 times. WYFF in Spartanburg had a 5.43 rating, with nearly 41,500 households watching, more than double its other Saturday night programming.
Both candidates were successful at appealing to their bases during the last debate, according to Danielle Vinson, a professor of Politics and International Affairs Furman University.
“Graham certainly sort of confirmed he’s the conservative choice. If you’re concerned about conservative justices and want them on the Supreme Court, then he is your guy,” Vinson said. “For Harrison, I think he was able to mostly portray that he’s not of the progressive wing of the party but is more of a mainstream Democrat and combat that sort of image of him that that the Republicans are trying to paint.”
But to win, both Graham and Harrison at the end of the day are battling for a small proportion of voters who are in the middle and undecided, Vinson said.
Quinnipiac University says 3% of voters are undecided. The CBS News/YouGov poll has says 9% of voters are unsure of who they will vote for in the race.
“I’m pretty sure Democrats have made up their mind on this and real Republicans have made up their mind on this,” Vinson said. “(They) really are fighting over a very narrow group of people right now.”
Graham must reach across aisle
Graham once billed himself as someone willing to work with Democrats on the important issues such as immigration. To win over moderates who may still be undecided, he must show that side of him, experts say.
“I think he needs to probably emphasize some of the examples where he has worked across the aisle,” said College of Charleston political scientist Gibbs Knotts. “That’s the old Graham. Maybe reconnect with the kind of a Graham from earlier in his Senate career.”
Doing some comes with some risk, said Todd Shaw, a political science and African American studies professor at the University of South Carolina. Graham needs to walk the line of reminding voters he has worked across the aisle, while not alienating voters who are Trump supporters but not totally supportive of the three-term senator, he said.
“I think he has actually the more difficult challenge as compared to Harrison, whereas Harrison needs to continue to prosecute the case and be ... nimble on his feet,” Shaw said referring to Harrison’s attack on Graham for not being honest with South Carolinians.
Shaw added, Graham goes into Friday’s debate needing to improve his responses to attacks of him changing positions over the years.
“Graham knew that he was going into that debate having to mobilize the Republican or conservative base in the state and fend off, as best as possible, the charges of flip flopping or integrity from Harrison,” Shaw said of the candidates’ first debate. “I’m sure he didn’t do that quite as well as he would have even liked.”
Knotts said there were times Graham worked his talking points into answers even if questions weren’t about the issues he wanted to raise, including repeatedly referring to a need for conservative judges.
“He seemed to want to answer the question how he wanted to answer it, not necessarily addressing the specifics of the question,” Knotts said. “ ’The majority of South Carolinians want conservative judges, so I’m going to work that into every answer’, but ... South Carolina voters are smart, they know you know if you’re answering a question or not.”
Harrison’s debate objectives
Harrison must convince conservative voters he won’t vote in lock-step with national Democrats, a strategy that helped fellow Democrat Joe Cunningham, who represents the state’s 1st Congressional District, win that seat.
Knotts gave the edge to Harrison in the first debate, noting how Harrison pledged to reject partisanship if elected.
“Harrison seemed very well prepared. He answered the questions,” Knotts said, adding Harrison was “probably the most effective when he talked about working across the aisle and, solving problems, not necessarily from the perspective of a Democrat or Republican, but really solving South Carolina’s problems by reaching across the aisle,” Knotts said.
Harrison portraying himself as a “non-partisan Democrat,” as Shaw says, is difficult.
“It’s really the strategy he has to pursue in a state that leans Republican in terms of mobilization and registration,” Shaw said. “But, you certainly you might have some segment of Republicans willing to be convinced to take a chance on Harrison if they’re very lukewarm on Graham.”
Knotts said Harrison needs to continue his strategy of not being pinned down as someone who is part of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.
“I think he’s got to still strike that middle ground,” Knotts said. “Talk about working with Republicans. I think he was really effective when he mentioned his work with Matt Moore when he was head of the South Carolina GOP while (Harrison) was head of the South Carolina Democratic Party.”
Knotts added Harrison was able to turn a Graham jab against the Democratic Party into a strong moments for himself.
“When Lindsey Graham said that the Democratic Party is ‘nuts,’ that was just a really great moment for Harrison, to quickly on his feet come back and say well ‘you know that’s part of the problem: you’re not going to go to work with the other group if you say that they’re nuts,’ ” Knotts said.
Both need to expand from their base of supporters, but Graham may have an advantage in a state that consistently votes Republican in statewide elections.
“You’re trying to expand from your base in a general election,” Knotts said. “I think, Harrison did a better job than Graham at that, but I think he needs to continue to do that. He’s got to be a little further, just because of the Republican Party in South Carolina. Graham’s base is bigger than Harrison’s base, given the underlying political dynamics in South Carolina,” Knotts said.
How to watch
What: The 2nd debate between U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham and Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison, hosted WSPA and the South Carolina Chamber of Commerce.
When: Friday, 7 p.m.
Where to watch: Airing on WLTX in Columbia, WCBD in Charleston, WBTW in Myrtle Beach, WSAV in Hilton Head and WJBF in Aiken.
This story was originally published October 9, 2020 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Graham, Harrison need to win a ‘narrow group’ of SC voters in next debate."
