At least 2 more tropical systems could form by mid-November. Here’s the forecast.
As many as three more tropical cyclones could develop between the end of October and the middle of November, forecasters say: two in the Caribbean and one in the southwestern Atlantic, NOAA forecasters say.
Could we have a Halloween hurricane?
The National Hurricane Center’s 7-day forecast map on Friday, Oct. 25, showed no tropical cyclone activity expected to develop in the next week.
However, the National Weather Service’s Global Tropical Hazards Outlook, which takes into account European forecasts that look further out than seven days, said modeling indicates a tropical cyclone could form in the Caribbean between Oct. 30 and Nov. 5, with some models saying it could form as early as Oct. 29.
The likelihood of a storm developing in the Caribbean during that window is 40% to 60%, forecasters say.
“Regardless of the exact timing, forecast confidence is high that another tropical cyclone forms across the Caribbean Sea by the end of October,” the Weather Service said.
Modeling also shows a chance of a subtropical low-pressure system or tropical cyclone forming over the southwestern Atlantic between Oct. 30 and Nov. 5, the Weather Service said. That system has a 20% to 40% chance of developing.
The next named storms in the Atlantic would be Patty and Rafael.
What about later in November?
Long-term weather modeling shows a 20% to 40% chance of tropical cyclone development in Caribbean from Nov. 6 to Nov. 12, the Weather Service said, with conditions favorable for a late-season storm through at least mid-November.
How common are Atlantic hurricanes in the fall?
Atlantic Hurricane Season — which includes the Atlantic, the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico — runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, with the peak of the season happening in the middle of September, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
But NOAA says there is a second peak that happens around the middle of October, usually involving storms in the Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico. After that, the number of storms typically drops dramatically.
North Carolina’s late season storms
There have been some notable late-October storms, including one over Halloween in 1887 that came out of the Gulf, cut across Florida and affected the East Coast all the way to North Carolina.
Another Halloween storm, in 1991, was the basis of the movie “The Perfect Storm” because of the way a host of atmospheric phenomena came together in its formation. That storm pounded the North Carolina Outer Banks, generating several days of 10- to 12-foot surf that flooded N.C. 12, deposited up to 4 feet of sand on the highway and capsized a slew of pleasure craft headed south for the winter.
This story was originally published October 25, 2024 at 3:12 PM with the headline "At least 2 more tropical systems could form by mid-November. Here’s the forecast.."
