Hurricane season has started. Here’s the NC outlook from weather experts
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season started June 1, and while it’s not something we celebrate in North Carolina, meteorologists and emergency managers say it’s a good time to check the forecast and stuff a crate with flashlights, batteries and snack foods with a long shelf life.
Here’s what to know about the upcoming season.
When is hurricane season?
Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 every year, though there have been outlier hurricanes before and after those dates.
When will the first Atlantic storm hit?
▪ The first named storm — one with sustained winds of at least 39 mph — typically forms in mid- to late June, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
▪ The first hurricane — with winds of at least 74 mph — usually forms in early to mid-August.
▪ The first major hurricane – Category 3, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph — typically forms in late August to early September.
How many hurricanes and tropical storms are expected in 2025?
Spring forecasting of the hurricane season is fraught with uncertainties, but that doesn’t stop meteorologists from taking a stab. The first forecasts come out in April and May, then get updated as the season gets underway.
Forecasters at Colorado State University and NOAA both said in their initial outlooks that the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season likely would bring more storms than the historical average.
▪ Colorado State in April predicted 17 named storms, including 9 hurricanes, four of them major hurricanes.
▪ NOAA said in May its forecasters expect 13 to 19 total named storms. Of those, six to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes, including three to five major hurricanes.
What happened to La Niña?
A La Niña that was expected to develop and last at least through the spring but had ended by Mach, because waters in the east-central Pacific Ocean didn’t drop as low expected over the winter. A La Niña weather pattern usually is associated with an increase in hurricane activity, while its weather opposite, El Niño, tends to suppress hurricane formation.
Presently, there is neither a La Niña nor an El Niño, meaning we’re in what experts call neutral conditions. However, meteorologists now are studying whether baseline temperatures in the Pacific have warmed to the point that they have more influence over the Atlantic hurricane season than either La Niña or El Niño.
Will NC likely get a hurricane this year?
Any tropical storm or hurricane that forms in the Atlantic basin can affect North Carolina.
Hurricane Helene, which formed in the Gulf and took an inland route to the mountains of North Carolina, caused record flooding and more than 2,000 landslides across the Southern Appalachian mountains last September though it had weakened to tropical storm strength by then.
Colorado State’s researchers look at probabilities based on historical data, current weather patterns and forecasts.
Their math shows that in 2025 North Carolina has:
▪ A 76% chance of being affected by a tropical storm;
▪ A 46% chance of being affected by a hurricane;
▪ A 9% chance of being affected by a Category 3 or higher hurricane.
The university says “affected by” means a storm comes within 50 miles of the state, not necessarily that it comes ashore here. But as Helene showed, a tropical storm or hurricane can do damage hundreds of miles from where it comes ashore.
This story was originally published June 2, 2025 at 3:14 PM with the headline "Hurricane season has started. Here’s the NC outlook from weather experts."
