Meteorologists making winter predictions early

Godzilla El Nino!

Are you scared yet? Weather prognosticators apparently think you should be.

Meteorologists, looking at what the fall and winter might hold for us, are beginning to talk about the possibility of a freakish, killer, monster Godzilla El Nino event that could bring wet, cold and potentially snowy weather to many parts of the country in the months ahead. And that apparently includes the Southeast.

Weather people – especially the non-professionals whose job is primarily to stand in the snow and point at it or get blown around by hurricane-force winds – are notoriously prone to hyperbole. They want us tuning in every five minutes to see if the weather has changed.

In this case, however, respected meteorologists using scientific methods claim that an El Nino of this magnitude – perhaps the strongest ever recorded – makes predicting the weather months ahead much easier than usual. This is not the folks at Farmer’s Almanac using fuzzy caterpillars to determine whether we’re in for a rough winter.

Climate change most likely is a factor in what awaits us over the next six or seven months. Even with four months left in the year, scientists are predicting that 2015 will be the hottest year the world has ever seen.

That means equatorial Pacific waters between South America and Australia will be much warmer than usual. And that is likely to set off a chain reaction that helps determine what kind of winter the American continent will have.

The warmer water warms the air above it, which reduces the force of the trade winds. That allows the jet stream to make further inroads into the southern U.S. And a stronger jet stream traditionally produces more rain and storms across the southern parts of the country from southern California to the Carolinas.

This is likely to be a mixed bag for different regions of the nation. California, which has been battling its worst drought in history, needs the rain. But with vegetation diminished by the drought, heavy rains also could produce horrendous mudslides.

The forecast for the Northeast is for slightly warmer weather but with plenty of wicked Nor’easters and lots of snow. Hey, it’s the Northeast. Residents should know by now that they’re never going to get a break.

The Midwest, however, might get some relief after last winter’s bitter cold and endless snow. This winter could be a little warmer and drier.

But here’s the crucial question: What about us? What’s ahead for the Southeast?

The prognosticators’ verdict: Lots of rain and cooler temperatures.

Yuck! And to make matters worse, if the rain and cold coincide, we might be in for more snow as well.

Here’s another prediction: Look for a sharp uptick in the consumption of alcohol and the number of assaults as the winter progresses.

Sure, we could use a bit more rain to erase the drought that is creeping upon us. But droughts are what we worry about in the summer. In the winter, when it has been raining for two weeks solid and the temperatures are hovering around 35 degrees, what we worry about is our sanity.

But there it is, and the science behind the prediction is hard to dispute. Godzilla El Nino is coming.

Maybe it’s time to call on Mothra.

This story was originally published August 19, 2015 at 11:06 PM with the headline "Meteorologists making winter predictions early."