Hope for Afghanistan: Obama bows to reality

Overseeing the end of U.S. military operations in Afghanistan has been one of President Barack Obama’s prized political goals. As late as this summer, he was clinging to a plan to bring home the remaining American troops by the end of his presidency, despite appeals to reconsider from the Afghan government, U.S. commanders and NATO allies.

Obama consequently deserves credit for bowing to Afghanistan’s realities and reversing himself on Thursday. His new plan to leave 5,500 counterterrorism troops and trainers in the country in 2017 will give Afghanistan another chance to succeed – and perhaps spare the next president an early crisis.

As Obama pointed out, much has been accomplished in Afghanistan in recent years, including the training of a large Army with a demonstrated willingness to fight the Taliban and the completion of the country’s first democratic political transition. But the Taliban remains strong, as it demonstrated last month with its capture of the provincial capital of Kunduz. With the help of more than 60 U.S. airstrikes and advisers on the ground, Afghan forces were able to retake the city.

But if Obama had gone through with his plan to reduce the U.S. mission to a 1,000-strong embassy force by the end of next year, it was easy to foresee the pro-Western government of Ashraf Ghani losing control over more cities. The catastrophe in Iraq, where a premature U.S. withdrawal enabled the rise of the Islamic State and eventually forced the return of U.S. forces, could have been repeated.

As Obama also noted, Pakistan’s recent counterterrorism operations have had the effect of driving some al-Qaida forces across the border to Afghanistan, while the Islamic State has begun to establish itself in some areas. Under the new plan, U.S. counterterrorism forces deployed at bases in Kandahar and Jalalabad and the Bagram air base outside Kabul will be able to target those threats, while U.S. advisers can continue to work with key Afghan units, such as air and special forces, to blunt Taliban attacks.

At best, the prospect of a continued U.S. presence could induce the insurgents to negotiate a settlement with the Ghani government.

“By now it should be clear to the Taliban,” Obama said, that a peace deal is “the only real way to achieve the full drawdown of U.S. and foreign troops.”

With the U.S. commitment, Germany and other NATO allies are expected to prolong the deployment of their Afghanistan missions. But the flaw in Obama’s revised plan may nevertheless be that it leaves too few troops in place. The president said he would maintain the present U.S. force of 9,800 through most of 2016.

His successor may find that a force 40 percent smaller than that may not be adequate to manage the combined threats of the Taliban, al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. Still, that president will inherit a functional U.S. mission on multiple bases that can be adjusted as needed.

For that ,she or he will have Obama to thank.

This story was originally published October 16, 2015 at 3:07 PM with the headline "Hope for Afghanistan: Obama bows to reality."