Has Trump’s candidacy started to burn out?

Supposedly we are entering the twilight of Trump. Really? So soon?

Donald Trump, until recently – actually until the last Republican debate in Michigan – had been the marvel of the early primary season, the unlikely front-runner, by a long shot. Few saw it coming, and it is likely that even the hyper-confident Trump, himself, has been a little shocked at his own success.

Pundits and political scientists are having a chicken-or-egg debate about whether the rise of Trump was artificially engineered by the media or whether Trump’s triumph warranted the massive coverage he has received. Let’s take the safe route and say it is a little of both.

Let’s also admit that the bumptious billionaire knows how to put on a show. He should; he’s been in show-biz for decades, most recently as host of “The Apprentice,” and has cultivated the attention of the media in one way or another his whole adult life.

And his political success is legitimate. Just ask him.

Like it or not, he is the real front-runner. He has consistently led polls of Republican voters nationwide and in key primary states, often surpassing the second-place contender by a significant margin and relegating most of the rest of the 17-candidate field to single-digit support.

And he makes no bones about the fact that the polls are a key factor in his candidacy. To paraphrase: “Voters must like me, look at the polls. Why do they like me? Because I’m high in the polls.”

He boasted that the first debate, which aired on Fox News, drew the network’s biggest audience ever because he was in it. Ditto, the second debate on CNN. And he was preening this week, saying that the ratings for Stephen Colbert’s “Late Night” had been huge Tuesday because he was a guest.

That’s how he measures political achievement. So, it will be interesting to see how he reacts if his poll numbers go down.

A poll released Tuesday by Public Policy Polling shows that Trump is still the front-runner in Iowa, the critical first-caucus state, with 24 percent support from likely Republican voters. But Trump has slipped a little, and retired nerosurgeon Ben Carson isn’t far behind, with 17 percent. Businesswoman Carly Fiorina, is in third place with 13 percent.

Worse for Trump, the poll indicates he would lose to Carson in a head-to-head race in Iowa, commanding only 33 percent to Carson’s 60 percent. Trump also would lose in head-to-head contests with Fiorina and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.

Trump would, however, beat former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

Just about everyone has underestimated Trump’s appeal and its endurance. He has weathered controversies over statements of astounding tactlessness, racism, sexism and obtuseness that would have sunk lesser candidates. He has no real platform, but supporters don’t seem to care. His campaign is fueled entirely on braggadocio, bluster and chutzpah.

And yet he has maintained altitude for weeks on end, refusing to crash and burn as nearly everyone predicted.

But now we are told that it’s over, Republican voters are ready for someone, something new. They were never really serious about nominating Trump. It was just a flirtation.

But Trump could surprise us again. Despite the fact that he doesn’t resemble a conventional candidate, he appears to have struck a real chord with Republicans, especially the party’s base. Even if he isn’t the nominee, he already has helped set the tone for the rest of the primary season and forced other candidates to play his game.

Whoever the eventual GOP nominee is, he or she probably will have to promise to build a big, thick wall along the Mexican border and get someone else to pay for it.

But if he plummets in the polls, he will lose his sole claim to legitimacy as a candidate. And voters, as well as the media, undoubtedly would begin paying less attention to him.

And one of the most entertaining freak shows in modern U.S. political history could come to an abrupt end.

So soon?

This story was originally published September 25, 2015 at 12:37 AM with the headline "Has Trump’s candidacy started to burn out?."