College Football Playoff betting guide to Clemson vs. Ohio State and Oklahoma vs. LSU

Though it took awhile for the college football bowl bonanza to get rolling, the much-anticipated national semifinals will already be upon us Saturday when LSU plays Oklahoma in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl (ESPN, 3 p.m.), and Clemson battles Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl (ESPN, 7 p.m.).

We know many of you reading this are thinking about betting those games at local sports books. Let’s study the market and a few key stats. We’ll look at national rankings on offense and defense, strength of schedule as ranked by Jeff Sagarin of USA Today, and turnover margin.

▪ LSU (-13.5) vs. Oklahoma

LSU: No. 1 offense, No. 22 defense, No. 10 schedule, plus-8 turnover margin.

Oklahoma: No. 2 offense, No. 25 defense, No. 24 schedule, minus-7 turnover margin.

It’s hard to understand why this point spread is so high until you get to turnover margin. LSU played clean against a tough schedule in the nation’s best conference. Oklahoma was mistake-prone and erratic against a slightly softer slate.

LSU’s pro-style offense led by Heisman Trophy winner and projected No. 1 NFL draft pick Joe Burrow will move the ball and score, and it will likely turn any OU miscues into bonus touchdowns.

An early line of LSU -11 was bet hard up to -13 right off the bat. It would subsequently rise to -14 after news broke of player suspensions for Oklahoma. Dog lovers have taken a bite of +14, which dropped the line to 13.5 entering the week. For now, sharps clearly like LSU at -13 or less, but the percentages (and bets) flip when the key number of 14 comes into play.

Picking the winner could come down to properly gauging Oklahoma’s turnover issues. The Sooners can cover if they play relatively clean. If not, the Tigers will run away and hide … as they did vs. Georgia (37-10) and Texas A&M (50-7) in their last two tests vs. bowl-caliber opponents.

▪ Clemson (-2/63.5) vs. Ohio State

Ohio State: No. 5 offense, No. 2 defense, No. 18 schedule plus-11 turnover margin.

Clemson: No. 3 offense, No. 1 defense, No. 61 schedule plus-14 turnover margin.

The big mystery here is how much of a factor Clemson’s soft schedule played in shaping the defending national champion’s dominant season. Clemson has earned the benefit of the doubt — for now.

Sharps immediately bet Clemson up from an opener of -1 to -2. And, that was after prior media discussion that Ohio State might open as a small favorite. The Buckeyes would get pounded were the public to drive the line up to Clemson -3, but given OSU’s national profile, recreational bettors could just as easily move the number back toward pick-em.

Given team quality, it’s basically a national championship-caliber matchup in itself, with the winner having to do it all again Jan. 13 in the Superdome. (ESPN, 7 p.m.)

LSU sits atop futures boards to win the playoff because it has the easier road. A global composite of championship odds is showing LSU 7/5 (42 percent), Clemson 2/1 (33 percent), Ohio State 3/1 (25 percent), and Oklahoma 16/1 (6 percent). Those percentage equivalents add up to 106 because sports books build a universe larger than 100 percent to create a house edge.

Note that if you believe in Oklahoma as a Cinderella, you can get a lot better than 16/1 just by betting them on the money line twice. They’re getting in the range of +400 to +425 to upset LSU on Saturday. The price would likely be similar vs. the Clemson/Ohio State survivor.

Let’s make the math easy and call it +400 twice. Instead of putting $100 on OU at 16/1, you could put that $100 on the Sooners at +400 to upset LSU. If that happens, the sports book would return you $500 (your stake plus your winnings). Put that $500 on OU at +400 to win the championship game. If the slipper fits, the sports book would return $2500 ($500 stake plus $2,000 winnings). That’s 24/1 with a “rolling parlay.”

It’s almost always better to re-invest with money line wagers than to play the futures board. Make it a New Year’s resolution to use that approach from now on.

This story was originally published December 26, 2019 at 2:43 PM with the headline "College Football Playoff betting guide to Clemson vs. Ohio State and Oklahoma vs. LSU."