Can 2017 Winthrop team replicate Eagles’ upset of 10 years ago?

Ten years ago to the day, Winthrop played a higher-seeded school from Indiana in the NCAA Tournament the day before St. Patrick’s Day.

Gregg Marshall’s team out-rebounded Notre Dame 40-32 and hit eight 3-pointers (to the Fighting Irish’s four) in Winthrop’s first NCAA Tournament win in school history, and the only one in Big South Conference history.

It’s not clear how much junior Xavier Cooks has studied the greatest moment in Winthrop sports history but he offered a surprisingly similar recipe for success Thursday afternoon against four-seeded Butler: “win the rebounding battle and shoot the ball well.”

Data from College-basketball-reference.com shows 13 seeds beat No. 4s around 20 percent of the time in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. If the 13th-seeded Eagles knocked off the Bulldogs in Milwaukee it would certainly be a bigger upset than the Notre Dame win. Little stands out about Butler, save for its almost uniform solidity in most statistical categories. Winthrop’s Pat Kelsey was asked what things the Eagles needed to do replicate the school’s historical win 10 years prior.

“You’re going against a team that has more size and length, you’ve always got to do a good job of blocking out and eliminating second shots,” said Kelsey. “Butler is so solid. They’re one of the best in the country at taking care of the ball. They don’t hurt themselves and they execute their stuff.”

Key matchup

Who plays better? Xavier Cooks or Andrew Chrabascz?

Winthrop and Butler both have bellwether point-forwards that often dictate the team’s results. The coaches agreed that Butler’s Andrew Chrabascz and Winthrop’s Cooks will have a huge say in the outcome of Thursday’s contest.

“They’re cut from the same cloth, from a basketball standpoint,” said Kelsey. “They’re just players. You can’t really paint their position into a corner.”

Cooks was named first team All-Big South after nearly averaging a double-double (16 points, nine rebounds per outing) and is arguably the Eagles’ most important player. Keon Johnson leads the team in scoring, but Cooks is tops in rebounding, assists, blocked shots and steals. The 6-foot-9... - what is his position, anyway? - has 150 more rebounds than any other Winthrop player.

“Cooks is outstanding,” said Butler coach Chris Holtmann on Wednesday. “I think he’s a pro. His length and size and shooting and scoring ability, his ability to block shots, he’s... he’s a pro.”

Both players average around three assists per game.

“They play through him (offensively) a lot like we do with Andrew,” said Holtmann. “Both guys are exceptional passers, both guys read the game really well, both guys can shoot it and drive it, and they’re utilized in a lot of the same ways.”

There are a couple of noticeable differences between Cooks and Chrabascz (besides the complexity of their last names): Butler’s point-forward is markedly thicker and burlier than Cooks, who utilizes his 70-inch wingspan on both ends of the floor. Chrabascz is 6-foot-7, 230 pounds and has a crew-cut befitting of such a solid piece of human, while Cooks’ hair changes styles and flops around.

Cooks faces the basket, while Chrabascz likes to back down defenders. He made first team All-Big East, which surprised some folks that follow the league closely, but speaks more to his knack for impacting games without filling up a stat sheet.

“If we’re going to play well tomorrow, he’s going to be a big part of it defensively and offensively with his matchup with Cooks,” said Holtmann.

Key stat

Winthrop needs to make 3-pointers to beat Butler. The Eagles don’t necessarily have to shoot a great percentage, but they almost certainly need to make at least seven or eight to have a chance to win.

When Winthrop hits at least eight 3-pointers in a game this season, the Eagles are 15-3. In four of Butler’s eight losses, its opponent hit at least eight shots from 3. Holtmann said Butler isn’t as long (physically) on the perimeter this season, which may have contributed to opponents’ increased ability to shoot well against the Bulldogs from beyond the arc.

Winthrop gets nearly 37 percent of its offense from the 3-point line and it will be very difficult for the Eagles to pull an upset Thursday without some home runs from beyond the arc. Keon Johnson, Roderick Perkins, Anders Broman and Bjorn Broman all shoot over 35 percent from beyond the arc.

“We do rely on 3-point shooting,” said Kelsey, “because we have very skilled, very reliable 3-point shooters.”

Eagles fans will remember it was a dagger-like 3 by Chris Gaynor that clinched the win over Notre Dame in 2007. Will there be a repeat 10 years later?

This story was originally published March 15, 2017 at 4:29 PM with the headline "Can 2017 Winthrop team replicate Eagles’ upset of 10 years ago?."