What ESPN says about South Carolina’s chances for winning season, playoffs
College football talking season is just around the corner, but ESPN has already given fans around the country an appetizer.
The Worldwide Leader released its preseason College Football Power Index (FPI) rankings for the new season. The FPI “measures teams’ true strength on net points scale; expected point margin vs. average opponent on neutral field,” per ESPN.
South Carolina just cracked into the Top 25 in the FPI preseason rankings. Shane Beamer and the Gamecocks are No. 23 in the country with an FPI rating of 11.7. That makes South Carolina the 11th-best overall SEC team in the eyes of ESPN’s FPI. Last year, USC had an FPI rating of 14.7 which was good for No. 15 in the preseason rankings.
The FPI makes a plethora of other predictions in addition to its overall ranking. Here’s what kind of 2026 season ESPN is expecting Beamer and the Gamecocks to have:
Gamecocks will make a bowl game
After missing out on postseason football last year, the FPI predicts South Carolina will go bowling again in 2026.
South Carolina has a 66.6% chance of winning six games in 2026. The Gamecocks’ projected win-loss record is 6.4-5.6. Those six wins would be enough to guarantee a trip to a bowl game this season. It would be Beamer’s fourth bowl game during his tenure with the Gamecocks should the prediction come true. USC’s projected 2026 win-loss total is No. 12 among SEC teams.
Last year, the preseason FPI projected South Carolina to go 7.3-4.8 — but the Gamecocks finished the 2025 season with a 4-8 record.
The FPI wasn’t too kind to South Carolina’s chances at making a run at an SEC title or making the program’s first College Football playoff appearances.
Beamer and the Gamecocks have just a 1.3% chance to win the SEC, per the FPI. ESPN currently favors Texas to win the SEC and USC has the 12th-best odds of doing so.
South Carolina has a 10.7% chance of making the CFP and a 1% chance of making the national championship game. Last year, the FPI gave South Carolina a 20% shot to make the CFP.
The Gamecocks’ chance of actually winning a national title are a measly 0.4%.
Another tough schedule on deck
The FPI also has a strength of schedule component. This year, ESPN believes South Carolina’s schedule is the 10th-hardest in the entire country.
South Carolina is one of nine SEC teams that make up the Top 10 in ESPN’s strength of schedule ratings.
Arkansas currently touts the toughest schedule in the country and Ohio State (No. 8) is the only non-SEC team in the Top 10.
All but five of the Gamecocks’ 2026 opponents (Kent State, Towson, Mississippi State, Kentucky and Arkansas) are in the Top 25 of the preseason FPI rankings. South Carolina’s highest-ranked opponent is No. 5 Georgia.
The Gamecocks open their 2026 campaign at home vs. Kent State (ranked No. 135 out of 138 in the FPI) on Sept. 5 at 12:45 p.m.
This story was originally published July 13, 2026 at 11:28 AM with the headline "What ESPN says about South Carolina’s chances for winning season, playoffs."
