A Charlotte group expects York and Lancaster counties to double their populations
Explosive population growth isn’t new in York and Lancaster counties. Nor, according to one new report, is it anywhere near finished.
On Friday the Charlotte Regional Business Alliance released new data on expected population increases. The Charlotte region could grow by 50% between now and 2050, to 4.5 million residents. The fastest growth, also according to the study from the 15-county bi-state alliance, is expected in York and Lancaster counties.
York and Lancaster counties are expected to double in population in the next 30 years.
Recent 2020 Census data shows the same Charlotte region outlined in the study grew 16.3% since 2010. York and Lancaster counties grew about 25% in that same span.
The research released Friday also found 104 people move into the Charlotte region each day. The largest portion of that average intake comes from New York.
New residents from within this country tend to be younger, better educated and wealthier than residents already here, per the report. New residents from foreign countries tend to represent extremes. More than half, the research shows, are either highly educated, or they do not have a high school diploma.
Where growth will happen
The recent census puts York County at about 282,000 residents. Lancaster County has about 96,000 people. If those populations double, it’s roughly the equivalent of fitting the population of another city the size of New Orleans into York and Lancaster counties.
For more than a decade, massive population growth has centered on the parts of York and Lancaster counties nearest Charlotte, and along major roadways. Fort Mill, Tega Cay, Indian Land and Lake Wylie have been consistent hot spots.
Yet mayors David O’Neal in Tega Cay and Guynn Savage in Fort Mill gave a unison response on residential growth at a recent state of the community breakfast.
O’Neal, any land left for growth will be commercial
“We’re done with houses,” said O’Neal, adding any land left for development in his city should focus on commercial growth. “We’re done with residential in this area.”
Savage offered similar thoughts in Fort Mill, though the town still has projects throughout its limits with homes already approved but not yet built. Tega Cay has seen a recent slowdown of new residential construction. If Fort Mill fills out, growth could push elsewhere.
Despite massive population gains the past decade, the Indian Land panhandle in Lancaster County and southern parts of Lake Wylie still have large swaths of traditionally rural land. The type of land that’s consistently been used for new homes for a decade or more in Fort Mill, Tega Cay, Lake Wylie and Indian Land.
Growth also could push deeper into the counties away from Charlotte, into Rock Hill or places like Clover and York. The southern and western parts of York and Lancaster counties remain largely rural. Programs like the Pennies for Progress sales tax for road work have already improved infrastructure to help bring some residential growth into more rural communities.
Control of growth
Charlotte clearly creates growth potential for York and Lancaster counties. Yet local leaders don’t want Charlotte decisions to determine how South Carolina communities grow.
Elected officials from Rock Hill, Fort Mill, Tega Cay, York County and Lancaster County recently met for transportation talks on one of multiple Charlotte-region initiatives. Local control came up throughout those talks.
“What is good for Rock Hill, Fort Mill and Tega Cay may not be what’s best for Charlotte,” said York County Councilman Tom Audette.
At issue during those talks were bus routes. Specifically, how something like My Ride in Rock Hill could link up with Charlotte Area Transit System and other services throughout a 12-county region.
“We are certainly committed to regional coordination, but planning authority and decision making autonomy are important to us,” said David Hooper, administrator with the Rock Hill-Fort Mill Area Transportation Study.
S.C. Rep. Gary Simrill, from Rock Hill, said there are plenty of examples where North Carolina and South Carolina authorities work together. Even before Pennies for Progress began in 1997 there were the expansions of Buster Boyd Bridge and I-77 across state lines.
“Regionalism means working together, not one region telling the other what they’re going to do,” Simrill said at the recent transportation meeting.
Various types of voices will matter in how the area grows. The 2020 Census creates redistricting. More political representation is expected for Indian Land, Fort Mill and other areas that have grown. Simrill said legislators see where the growth is.
“No. 1 growth, Indian Land, out of 124 house districts,” he said at the transportation meeting. “No. 3 is Fort Mill. That tells you in real words what you already know.”
Yet while Rock Hill or Fort Mill can send a mayor to meet with key decision-makers, not all areas can. Brian Carnes represents Indian Land on Lancaster County Council. Indian Land is an unincorporated area. If Indian Land today were a city, he said in the transportation talks, it would be the eighth largest in South Carolina.
”It’s much easier to have this conversation when you’re an incorporated area,” Carnes said.
Not that he expects that to change. It’s another issue of local control. A 2018 referendum asked panhandle residents whether they wanted to form a new town. About 83% voted against it.
”I don’t think that incorporation train is going to come back for a while,” Carnes said.
This story was originally published October 4, 2021 at 12:00 AM.
