York County’s 5th Pennies for Progress road work list will likely be the most expensive
The next list of potential York County road improvements paid for through Pennies for Progress likely will surpass the $300 million mark.
If so, it would be the largest Pennies campaign to date. It would be larger than the first two Pennies referendums combined. It also would be based on recent precedent.
The fourth Pennies for Progress campaign, approved in 2017, had a $278 million budget. With about a year-and-a-half left of the seven-year collection period, Pennies program manager Patrick Hamilton said Pennies 4 should generate more money than initially projected.
“We do anticipate collecting over $300 million on Pennies 4,” Hamilton told transportation and elected officials earlier this month. “That’s the good news. The bad news is (road construction) costs are through the roof the last year and a half.”
Hamilton hasn’t publicly given a precise figure yet for what the Pennies 5 budget might be. He told the policy committee for the Rock Hill-Fort Mill Area Transportation Study on Friday he’d expect a higher referendum amount for Pennies 5 than for Pennies 4.
“We can’t predict what the economy is going to do in five years,” Hamilton said, “but based on our current trend where we are today, I would expect the next referendum to be higher.”
What to know about Pennies for Progress
Pennies for Progress is a one-cent sales tax used to fund road improvements in York County. Voters approve the tax every-seven years through a referendum. Voters have approved four referendums.
An appointed citizens commission meets with the public, stakeholders and county staff to create a road needs project list and match it with an amount of money the tax is expected to generate. York County Council then decides whether to put that list to voters.
The Pennies 1 campaign in 1997 was the first of its kind in South Carolina. That referendum budgeted about $99 million for 14 projects. Projects ran longer and costs much higher than anticipated. Some projects carried over to later Pennies campaigns. But the county was able to use funding from the Pennies 1 vote to get additional money from the state infrastructure bank and other sources to cover shortfalls.
Pennies 2 in 2003 budgeted $173 million for 25 projects. Pennies 3 in 2011 budgeted $161 million. Collection amounts came in respectively at $184 million and $186 million.
Budgeted amounts, collection amounts and projects completed aren’t always a straight line. Pennies 2 budgeted $173 million but collected about $184 million. Still, a review of Pennies 2 in late 2008 found the down-turned economy, construction material cost increases, and other factors meant many projects would be pushed to Pennies 3. In 2009 the county found it would take an extra $169 million to complete all the Pennies 2 projects.
Pennies began with outside consultants and companies. The county brought Pennies in-house in 2008 and cost estimates have largely been more accurate since.
The current Pennies 4 collections are well ahead of past campaign totals due to growth, and not just population. The more products cost, the higher the tax. The more business, tourism or similar factors York County has, the more tax money is raised.
Of course, sheer population growth can’t be ignored. Pennies 3 passed in 2011, when York County had about 230,000 residents. Pennies 4 passed in 2017 when there were about 266,000 residents. Now, the U.S. Census Bureau projects there are about 294,000 residents.
“Also with more folks moving to York County — more people to spend, people to shop — that increases our revenue as well,” Hamilton said.
What comes next?
A Sept. 20 public meeting in Rock Hill wrapped up a series of community events for the Pennies citizen commission dating back to March. The commission will meet again Oct. 11 to review projects brought up by municipalities, road experts and the public throughout the year. The commission will give a short list of projects to county staff for evaluation and detailed cost estimates.
“Just because a project is shortlisted doesn’t mean it’s going to be on the referendum,” Hamilton said. “It just means they want to get more information about that project.”
The citizen commission made that point clear at a similar July meeting to evaluate road input received up to that point. Commission members stated then they would send some projects they had concerns about to county staff just to get more detailed information. Including cost estimates they might expect to come back high and help exclude a road job.
Hamilton said work through the fall and winter to evaluate and price projects should lead to a list of cost estimates for the commission to consider by February.
“That gives them a month or two to be able to kind of put the final list together, work with the finance folks at York County to determine what we anticipate the revenue will be on Pennies 5,” Hamilton said. “And then the commission will have to put the puzzle pieces together.”
A final roads list would emerge around May, Hamilton said. That list will go to York County Council for a final vote on whether to put the list on a ballot. Council can’t change the list or priority ranking, which are key in which projects are likeliest to get done and how soon. Council can vote only to put the list to a public referendum or not.
If approved, the list of road jobs would go to referendum in November of next year. If approved then, the tax would begin the day after Pennies 4 expires in spring 2025.
This story was originally published September 28, 2023 at 8:20 AM.
