Nearly 40% of SC counties at COVID-19 ‘tipping point’ as Thanksgiving nears, data show
Daily coronavirus cases in more than one-third of South Carolina counties have reached a “tipping point” ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, according to data by Harvard University.
Researchers there are mapping the COVID-19 risk by state and county according to the seven-day moving average of new cases per 100,000 people. As of Tuesday, at least 18 of South Carolina’s 46 counties were in the red zone with 25 or more cases per 100,000 people.
Most of them are in the Upstate and Midlands.
The map, released by Harvard Global Health Institute, uses four colors to illustrate risk levels in every county: green, yellow, orange and red. Red designates a “tipping point” in which researchers say stay-at-home orders are necessary.
In South Carolina, average daily new cases have surged statewide. The S.C. Department of Health and Environmental Control was reporting a seven-day moving average of roughly 800 new COVID-19 cases in mid-September. That figure climbed to 1,425 as of Sunday.
Much of the spike has been caused by rising case numbers in the Upstate and Midlands — particularly in Greenville, Spartanburg and York counties. Still, health officials say key metrics in South Carolina aren’t hitting the record highs seen over the summer.
“Indicators such as daily case rates by population, percentage of positive tests and hospitalizations have all risen since the start of September. And while they have not reached July’s peaks, they are still at a rate that indicates continued disease spread,” The State reported Monday.
According to Harvard’s risk level dashboard, rural areas such as Newberry and Pickens counties had the highest per capita case rate as of Nov. 17. The rates there were 48.3 and 44.4 cases per 100,000 people, respectively.
More urban population centers like Greenville, Union and York counties are right behind them, where the per capita case rates range from 34.8 to 41.4 cases per 100,000 people.
On Saturday, York County officials added the highest daily COVID-19 case count since July with 122 new cases, the Rock Hill Herald reported. A record high of 158 new cases in York County was set on July 19.
Researchers shaded Richland County, home to Columbia, orange with 23.6 cases per 100,000 people as of Tuesday. That means there is “rigorous spread” and stay-at-home orders or extensive contact tracing might be needed, according to the risk level dashboard.
On the coast, Horry and Beaufort counties are also orange with per capita case rates of 23.9 and 15 cases per 100,000 people, respectively.
Thanksgiving risk
Another map released by the Georgia Institute of Technology helps families in any given area calculate the risk of at least one person testing positive for the coronavirus at a Thanksgiving gathering. A gathering of 50 people in Greenville and York counties has a risk level of 58% and 53%, respectively.
The risk of a person testing positive at the same-size gathering in Pickens and Newberry counties is 64%, according to the map.
Horry, Beaufort and Richland counties have lower risk levels between 29% and 42%.
South Carolina health officials have urged residents to exercise caution during the holiday season by wearing masks and getting tested for COVID-19 ahead of any travel. But they stopped short of calling for cancellations.
“We recognize that the holiday season is a sacred time, and we encourage South Carolinians to avoid indoor gatherings and maintain their commitment to activities that reduce the spread of COVID-19,” DHEC in a statement Monday.
Public health experts at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have also urged Americans to practice social distancing and limit the number of guests at Thanksgiving dinner as the pandemic worsens, citing the risk of transmitting the virus during a shared meal.
In Canada, officials saw a spike in coronavirus cases in the two weeks after Canadian Thanksgiving on Oct. 12, McClatchy News reported. The upward trend has continued into November.
“The leading source of exposures for active cases right now are close contacts, and many of the cases that we are seeing now are the result of spread over Thanksgiving when families gathered together,” Dr. Deena Hinshaw, Alberta’s chief medical officer of health, told CTV.
This story was originally published November 17, 2020 at 11:23 AM with the headline "Nearly 40% of SC counties at COVID-19 ‘tipping point’ as Thanksgiving nears, data show."
