Rock Hill area schools, even Fort Mill and Clover, lost students. Blame COVID?
All six Rock Hill region school districts are facing enrollment declines, a startling shift in an area that’s seen some of the highest population growth in the state for decades. Yet the most basic reason behind the loss of students suggests it may not last long.
“The explanation for the decline requires you to look back at your calendar five years ago,” said Clover School District spokeswoman Stephanie Knott.
Clover has 8,987 students, according to state enrollment figures published last week. That’s down from 9,038 students last year, despite record high enrollment in the ninth grade and steady numbers in most grades.
The difference is kindergarten, where the district dropped from 586 to 534 students in a year. Kindergarten accounts for the district’s entire drop, plus one fewer student.
“We had a pandemic, and birthrates were down at that time,” Knott said. “That’s why all districts appear to be down in enrollment this year.”
The COVID pandemic year of 2020 clearly impacted birth rates that feed into school enrollment, state vital records show. The question is whether the pandemic hurt or helped.
2020 drop in South Carolina births
South Carolina averaged 57,225 births per year from 2011 to 2019, according to the South Carolina Department of Public Health.
Fewer than 1,500 births separated the highest (2015) and lowest (2018) years. Then, births dropped to 55,713 in 2020. That’s a decrease of more than 1,330 births in a year and the lowest total since 2003.
It’s hard to blame the pandemic on the drop in births.
Health departments and public officials nationwide asked workers to go home in March 2020 in hopes of preventing the spread of COVID — with nine months left in the calendar year. So most babies born in 2020 were the result of pregnancies that began before pandemic lockdowns.
South Carolina births jumped to 57,179 in 2021. The 1,466-birth increase in a year is higher than the drop from 2019 to 2020. Births increased again in 2022, to their highest count since 2015.
It’s impossible to say what trend the state would’ve seen without the pandemic, but an increase in births since reverses what had been a steady drop that began a decade ago.
York County has a trend line that nearly matches the state one, with births dropping from 2,979 in 2019 to a nine-year low 2,860 in 2020. A rebound in 2021 saw 3,063 births, the most since 2007.
Lancaster County births have grown every year from 2019 to 2023, the most recent year listed in state birth records. There were 1,044 in 2020. The 1,234 births in 2023 set a high mark in Lancaster County for the third-straight year.
Chester County saw decreases in births each year from 2019 to 2022, including 342 births in 2020.
School enrollment changes in Rock Hill region
Until this school year, enrollment across the Rock Hill region was predictable.
The Fort Mill, Lancaster County and Clover districts have grown since 2020, when virtual school caused by the pandemic dropped student counts across the country. The pandemic was a blip for those districts that have grown for decades, as population surged in Fort Mill, Indian Land, Lake Wylie and Tega Cay.
York schools have had mostly flat enrollment of about 5,000 students for a decade. Chester County schools dipped in that time, dropping below York in 2017 to become the region’s smallest district. There are now fewer than 4,400 students in Chester County schools.
Apart from a one-year uptick coming out of the pandemic, Rock Hill schools have been on a downward path since 2015.
The district had 17,946 students then. The latest enrollment counts show 15,611 students. Fort Mill, now with 18,124 students, passed Rock Hill as the region’s largest district in 2020.
The school board in Rock Hill heard details last month, including district plans to engage the community to understand why the drop in students is happening.
“This is not sustainable to lose 300, 400 kids a year,” board member Pete Nosal said in October.
Kindergarten impact on school enrollment
Aside from families who “redshirt” children to start school later, the typical Rock Hill region kindergartner this year was born in the last four months of 2019 or the first eight months of 2020.
South Carolina has 1,309 fewer kindergarten students this year compared to last year. They make up 6.7% of public school students.
Overall, South Carolina has 789,086 students. The enrollment drop of 7,694 students in a year spans all public schools, including traditional and charter ones. About 17% of the enrollment decrease comes from having fewer kindergarten students.
Rock Hill region school districts have 185 fewer kindergarten students compared to last year. They have 1,082 fewer total students, mirroring the state mark of 17% for the kindergarten share of enrollment decreases.
Nearly half of the overall enrollment loss in the region’s three fastest-growing districts is a result of fewer kindergartners.
Fort Mill, Lancaster County and Clover schools decreased by a combined 484 students since last year, including 214 fewer kindergarten students. That’s 44% of the total drop.
Rock Hill, York and Chester County schools, meanwhile, added more kindergarten students in that same span. They combine for 29 more kindergarten students this year than last year, with more than half of that increase coming in Rock Hill.
Impacts of enrollment changes
If the 2020 dip in births is responsible for lower enrollment today, then the uptick in following years suggests schools may see more students the next few years.
Enrollment is a critical variable for districts that have to plan classroom space, teacher hiring and per pupil spending. Enrollment also impacts school activities from high school sports to marching band competitions.
The enrollment change since last year is within typical year-to-year fluctuation in Rock Hill, said district spokeswoman Laurabree Monday. Officials in several districts say they’re monitoring the drops for potential impacts, but aren’t concerned with the one-year dip.
“While we track enrollment trends closely, we also remain focused on serving — and celebrating — the more than 15,500 students and families who choose Rock Hill Schools every day,” Monday said.
