Preparing for future storms, NC is working around one bad source of data: FEMA flood maps
Flood maps in use when Hurricane Matthew hit in 2016 missed many of the homes still seeking to rebuild, North Carolina officials have determined.
In the aftermath of the storm, the owners of 2,615 homes applied for financial assistance from the federal Community Development Block Grant, Disaster Recovery program. When North Carolina officials compared the locations of those homes to Federal Emergency Management Agency maps, they found that 77.4% were not in FEMA-defined floodplains and only 8.3% were in a 500-year floodplain.
FEMA only requires owners of homes in 100-year floodplains — who have a 1% chance of flooding in a given year — to elevate their homes and buy flood insurance. On FEMA’s maps, just 14.2% of the homes seeking to rebuild were in 100-year floodplains.
The other homeowners may have thought they had little to no risk of flooding.
“Flood maps are always catching up, they are always behind,” said Laura Hogshead, chief operating officer of the North Carolina Office of Recovery and Resiliency. “So when you’re relying on base flood elevation, you’re relying on old information. And when we were looking at the levels of damage for these homes and looking at what should have happened, they were all sustaining more damage than what should have happened if you were looking at the flood maps.”
As it uses the federal money to rebuild homes damaged during Matthew and Florence, NCORR is trying to make up for the shortcomings of the federal flood maps. When they replace a home, the state officials are not only considering the block grant program’s requirement that homes be elevated two feet above FEMA’s base flood elevation, but also the high water mark inspectors find in the homes. If the high water mark is higher than the base flood elevation, that is the point from which the home is raised two feet.
By pursuing this strategy, Hogshead said, the state is guaranteeing that homes outside of federally designated flood plains are re-built higher than the levels at which they actually flooded. Considering the high water mark, Hogshead added, is more likely to prevent future flooding than the federal requirements.
“We realized that if it happened once, it would probably happen again,” Hogshead said.
FEMA flood map flaws
Lumberton and Princeville are two places where Hogshead said the policy has been particularly influential.
An outside expert who reviewed the policy said it is a wise approach. Joel Scata, an attorney on the Natural Resources Defense Council’s water and climate team, said FEMA’s maps are generally based on outdated data. A 2017 report by the Department of Homeland Security’s Inspector General found that about 58% of flood maps nationwide were either outdated or inaccurate.
When it draws flood maps for FEMA use, the N.C. Floodplain Mapping Program uses information such as high water marks and river flow rates that is available at the outset of the mapping process to define floodplains and decide base elevations, said Tom Langan, an engineering supervisor with the program.
In areas with river flooding, Langan said, drawing maps can take about five years. On the coast, where storm surge flooding is a consideration, it is generally about a decade. Furthermore, the maps are not all updated at one time.
If a county started drawing a flood map today, it would include the information from Hurricanes Matthew and Florence, but Keith Acree, a spokesman for N.C. Emergency Management, said, “For counties that started the process five years ago or 10 years ago and are becoming finalized now, the data from (Matthew and Florence) is not included in those models.”
In other words, flood maps in North Carolina are not likely to consider the floods from Matthew or 2018’s Hurricane Florence. But by considering the high water mark in rebuilding, the state is using the data from those storms to better protect against future floods.
“These are truly smart steps for the state to take, especially because flooding is likely to become more severe,” Scata said. “By building in an extra margin of safety, the state is better protecting the people who live in those homes.”
When NCORR approached officials at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development to discuss considering high water marks when rebuilding, Hogshead said, the federal agency told them North Carolina would be the first state to undertake such an effort.
Joseph Phillips, a HUD spokesman, said the agency encourages local officials to consider mitigation efforts beyond elevating two feet above FEMA’s base flood elevation. HUD administers the block grant recovery program.
“Recipients of CDBG-DR funding can tailor their recovery programs to meet local needs,” Phillips wrote in an email to The News & Observer, “and the elevation of homes above the high water mark is one method to reduce future flooding risk.”
Elevating homes in Kinston
Antoinette and Nigel Croom’s home on Lincoln Street in Kinston is among the homes that have been elevated using block grant recovery funds. The Crooms evacuated during Hurricane Matthew, when rising floodwaters effectively turned the house into an island.
Upon their return, they found that water had come in through a leaking roof. Two years later, Hurricane Florence brought back old fears and new water, forcing the family to abandon one of the home’s rooms in its aftermath.
“There were holes in the ceiling, it was leaking in about three rooms, but we just stayed here,” Antoinette Croom said. “We didn’t have anywhere else to go and we had to stay here.”
The Crooms remained in the house until November, moving out only so NCORR could rebuild it. When Antoinette Croom returned for her first look at the rebuilt three-bedroom, two-bath house, it stood three feet off the ground.
Standing outside of the home last Tuesday, Gov. Roy Cooper stressed elevation as a strategy to prevent future damage. Matthew flooded about 800 homes and 170 businesses in Kinston, according to a FEMA document.
“We know because of the effects of climate change that these storms are going to come back, and they’re going to be stronger than ever,” Cooper said. “So for example, Antoinette’s home has been elevated by three feet (so that) in the event that there is another flood, her home has a much better chance to survive and we don’t have to put the money back into it to rebuild again.”
Don Hardy, Kinston’s mayor, said that elevation is useful because it allows residents to stay in the communities they already know. Furthermore, Hardy said, it is important to consider shifting floodplains during the rebuilding process.
As he spoke, Hardy looked around the neighborhood. Across the street, a house stood on bricks about one foot off the ground. Down the block, three houses in a row seemed abandoned, with windows boarded up and front doors standing wide open.
More residents should consider elevating their homes, Hardy said.
“Homeowners in this area should take a look at (elevation) where they are and just be aware they they could potentially flood if we have a significant amount of rain,” Hardy said. “It’s about putting things in place to prevent flooding — flood mitigation, flood preventative measures. I’m just really excited that we’re doing something so that in the future, we can combat the flooding.”
Sitting near the top of her six new front steps, Croom said it was “rough” in the home after Matthew and during Florence. Now, Croom said, she will not take things like being able to turn on the power or having a leak-free home for granted.
“I feel like I was already safe from (flooding),” Croom said, “but I feel even safer now.”
Recovery spending
As of Feb. 3, NCORR had used block grant recovery funds to finish rebuilding or rehabilitating 220 homes, with 300 more underway and contracts awarded for another 48. Those projects cost a total of $36.16 million.
In total, the state has spent or committed $175.4 million of the $236.5 million HUD granted it for Matthew recovery.
NCORR has also prepared an action plan describing how it intends to spend $542.6 million in HUD recovery funds for Hurricane Florence. As NCORR spends the Florence money, the agency plans to continue considering high water marks when it elevates homes.
“We can’t ignore what happens to these homes regardless of what the flood maps say should have happened,” Hogshead said. “We can’t ignore what we know, and what we know is that the flooding is worse than the flood maps indicated.”
This reporting is financially supported by Report for America/GroundTruth Project and The North Carolina Local News Lab Fund, a component fund of the North Carolina Community Foundation. The News & Observer maintains full editorial control of the work. To support the future of this reporting, subscribe or donate.
This story was originally published February 18, 2020 at 5:30 AM with the headline "Preparing for future storms, NC is working around one bad source of data: FEMA flood maps."