What projections show about Winthrop’s NCAA seed. A nice payday could be in store
Early projections say Winthrop has a legitimate shot at a substantial payday.
The Winthrop men’s basketball team, which won the Big South tournament championship this past weekend, will be awarded $75,000 from the Big South Conference if it is announced as a 12 seed or better on Sunday. This is part of the conference’s Basketball Incentive Plan, one established a few years ago in part because, as Big South commissioner Kyle Kallander told The Herald earlier this week, “the recognition that you get for winning the Big South Conference championship and going to the NCAAs is almost incalculable.”
Per BracketMatrix.com, a website that aggregates and averages 133 bracket seeding projections made by professional bracketologists (including ESPN’s Joe Lunardi), Winthrop’s cumulative average seed is 12.33 as of Tuesday morning.
Specifically, Winthrop is predicted ...
As a 13 seed in 56 brackets
As a 12 seed in 70 brackets
As an 11 seed in four brackets
As a 10 seed in one bracket
As a 9 seed in two brackets
Checking in on bracketologists of note:
As of Monday night, ESPN’s Lunardi projects Winthrop as a 12 seed, and he thinks the Eagles will play Colorado in the first round and then, with a win, the winner of Liberty (automatic qualifier) and Oklahoma State.
As of Tuesday morning, Yahoo! Sports’ Michael Lazarus predicts Winthrop as a 13 seed.
As of Sunday morning, SBNation’s Chris Dobbertean has Winthrop at a 12 seed. He predicts the Eagles will play the University of Southern California and then, with a win, the winner of UNC-Greensboro and Oklahoma State.
As of Tuesday morning, Bill Bender of Sporting News projects Winthrop as an 11 seed.
Winthrop projection seedings subject to change
Winthrop is among several elite mid-major teams vying for a 12 seed.
This seed, after all, is widely viewed as the most fertile starting point for a Cinderella run: A 12-5 upset has occurred 50 times over the last 40 years, and if a 12 seed makes it out of the first round, they’ll avoid playing a 1, 2 or 3 seed in the second for a shot at a Sweet 16 appearance.
As of Tuesday morning, the Eagles are one of only six teams to clinch automatic bids to the NCAA tournament. And that means a lot can still change.
Prospective NCAA tournament teams can move up and down depending on how they finish in their respective conference tournaments.
For instance, Western Kentucky has a cumulative average seed of 12.27 (just ahead of Winthrop). If the Hilltoppers don’t take home the Conference USA tournament crown, they’ll likely either drop in their seeding or be outright replaced in the tournament by the conference’s automatic qualifier, who will likely inherit a 14-16 seed.
A similar set of circumstances apply to Wichita State of the American Conference, Toledo of the MAC, UC Santa Barbara of the Big West, or Colgate of the Patriot — all of which are projected in that 11-to-13 seed range: A bad showing at their conference tournaments can only mean Winthrop’s gain.
Winthrop’s NCAA tournament resume
The Eagles have now earned 12 NCAA tournament bids in their history, including one last year that didn’t result in an NCAA tournament appearance because of COVID.
Of the team’s 10 previous appearances, they’ve been seeded as an 11 seed once (which resulted in the team’s first and only NCAA tournament win), a 13 seed twice, a 14 seed twice, a 15 seed once and a 16 seed four times.
This year, the Eagles claimed the best start in Winthrop and Big South histories and only lost once all season — a two-point defeat to UNC Asheville. They’re led by Big South Player of the Year Chandler Vaudrin and conference Coach of the Year Pat Kelsey.
When is the NCAA Selection show?
Winthrop will learn its NCAA tournament opponent when the 2021 bracket is revealed at 6 p.m. Sunday, March 14 on CBS.
This story was originally published March 10, 2021 at 7:30 AM.
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