‘Backfire effect.’ Trump won York, Lancaster, Chester counties in 2020. This is how.
Days before Nov. 3, the South Carolina Democratic Party descended on York County in an effort to get residents to the polls, urging them to vote for Democrats down the ballot. Party representatives, who were on a statewide bus tour, pushed one message at every stop: 2020 will be the year Democrats flip South Carolina, and those in the crowds believed it.
“I just think it’s really exciting that South Carolina could potentially go Democrat,” Krista Huff told The Herald at a Fort Mill event. “That’s energizing for a lot of people.”
In York, Lancaster and Chester counties, that didn’t happen.
Despite an influx of people migrating to South Carolina from 2016 to 2020, particularly to York and Lancaster counties, the counties’ 2020 election results closely mirror what happened in 2016.
And, some longtime statehouse Democrats were ousted, which raises the question of whether the area electorate has become more Republican.
S.C. Rep. Mandy Powers Norrell, who represents Lancaster County, lost reelection to her challenger Sandy McGarry, a self-identified conservative Republican. Powers Norrell, the 2018 Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor, held her seat for eight years. She ran unopposed in 2016.
“That’s the backfire effect,” Winthrop University political science professor Scott Huffmon told The Herald this week. “The fact that so many Democrats were showing hope, really inspired the Republicans to turn out in large numbers. They’re thinking ‘Hey, they may be on to something. We better turn out and squash this.’”
Republicans won 11 of the 13 South Carolina Senate and House seats on the 2020 ballot that represent York County.. The two exceptions were S.C. Sen. Mike Fanning of Great Falls and S.C. Rep. John King of Rock Hill. Both won reelection.
‘A referendum on Trump’
Although the votes in the 2020 presidential race are still being counted across the country, unofficial results show President Donald Trump won South Carolina, as he did in 2016, and as every other Republican presidential nominee has done since 1976, according 270toWin, a nonpartisan American political website.
Trump won York and Lancaster counties by nearly the same percentage points as in 2016. However, he won Chester County by a higher percentage.
Based on U.S. Census Bureau estimates, South Carolina’s population grew by about 180,000 from 2016 to 2019. And, of that, 23,000 made their way to York County, and about 8,400 to Lancaster County. As a result, the number of registered voters increased.
In York County, with a population of about 281,000, the number of registered voters skyrocketed from 2016 to 2020, with 30,613 new registrations by Tuesday’s election. In Lancaster County, with a population of about 98,000, the number of registered voters jumped by 12,655, or 23%, in the same period.
In both counties, turnout went up two percentage points, according to the state’s election results.
Trump won York County, which has 197,666 registered voters. He got 57% in 2020, compared to 58% in 2016, according to unofficial results. He won Lancaster County, which has 67,514 registered voters, by 61% in both 2016 and 2020, according to unofficial results.
“South Carolina favors Trump,” said Huffmon, who directs the Winthrop Poll initiative. “They approve of the job he’s been doing, and this election in South Carolina confirmed that South Carolinians are more likely to approve of Donald Trump. This election came down to being a referendum on Trump, and that’s how the numbers played out.”
‘Unlike any other county in this state’
The spike in population had given Democrats in this region hope that the electorate would lean less red.
“York County is unlike any other county in this state,” Trav Robertson, the S.C. Democratic Party chairman, told a crowd at a Rock Hill event. “It is changing on a daily basis. We all know people who work in Charlotte but they want to live and play in York County, or that northern tip of Lancaster. The fact is it’s an independent county that trends Republican because sometimes we haven’t put forth the best candidates or run the best campaigns, but that’s changing this year.”
According to U.S. Census Bureau data, people from Mecklenburg County are moving to York County three times as fast as the next closest county.
Even with the growth, Huffmon said the area has and continues to trend Republican.
“A lot of these newcomers are actually people with more money from the Charlotte region, or are coming for Charlotte,” Huffmon said. “Those folks are not part of Charlotte’s blue dot in North Carolina. They are part of the wealthier, greater Charlotte area, and tend to vote as such.”
And Huffmon argued that former U.S. Rep. Mick Mulvaney’s take over in 2011 of the 5th Congressional District, which had been held for nearly 30 years by Democrat John Spratt, demonstrates that. Huffmon said Spratt was fiscally conservative, which was attractive to the area’s older electorate.
“All the newcomers didn’t know (Spratt’s) history, and only saw a ‘D’ next to his name,” Huffmon told The Herald. “They heard Mick Mulvaney singing the conservative siren song of small government and not knowing John Spratt at all, went to (Mulvaney).”
U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman, a noted Trump ally, won reelection in the 5th District Tuesday night.
Trump’s lead against his Democratic challenger shrunk from 2020 to 2016. In York County, according to unofficial results, Trump had about a 16 percentage point lead over former Vice President Joe Biden. In 2016, he held a 22 percentage point lead over 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.
In Lancaster County, according to unofficial results, Trump had about a 23 percentage point lead over Biden. In 2016, he had a 26 percentage point lead over Clinton.
“Pivot county” Chester goes red again
In Chester County, high voter turnout meant a win for President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. The county is one of South Carolina’s five pivot counties — meaning after voting for Obama twice, the county “pivoted” to Trump in 2016.
In Chester County, 36.8% of residents are Black (compared to 13.4% nationally).
Turnout dropped from about 70% in 2012 to 68% in 2016. The U.S. Census Bureau found that in 2016, Black voter turnout declined for the first time in 20 years, while Latino and overall nonwhite voters held steady.
In the past 15 elections, Chester County has voted for a Democratic president in 10, and a Republican in five.
In 2020, it again looked like Chester County might have had a Democratic victory, but that didn’t happen.
Participation rose from 68% to 73% this year, and 55% of the county’s votes went to Trump. He won by a larger margin than 2016, when he beat Clinton at 51% of Chester’s votes.
According to the South Carolina Election Commission, 100% of precincts in York, Lancaster and Chester counties have reported complete results in the 2020 election. The votes were to be certified Friday.
This story was originally published November 6, 2020 at 11:56 AM.
